tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9311787837526355.post1464139396677205601..comments2023-10-16T05:12:31.101-04:00Comments on It's Boris Diaw Time!: What the Lottery Winners Actually WonJon Landrumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06285647002396519452noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9311787837526355.post-91672535220160489772012-06-05T20:48:21.928-04:002012-06-05T20:48:21.928-04:00fair enough...I plan on continuing to draft him re...fair enough...I plan on continuing to draft him recklessly.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13479702144884181982noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9311787837526355.post-35174471573555319482012-06-05T20:32:31.071-04:002012-06-05T20:32:31.071-04:00Casey - Thanks, man. I put in a ton of work on thi...Casey - Thanks, man. I put in a ton of work on this spreadsheet, and I definitely think it tells quite a story. The NBA draft is perpetually one of the most overrated things in sports. It usually yields very little, and proper expectations must be set. As for your Kings, the Robinson vs. Drummond question is interesting. Honestly, they might be better served packaging it with something and getting a proven veteran. They have young talent, but they need to get winning reps.<br /><br />Bloomy - I know you love Bargnani...we've tried to trade. As a #1 overall pick, Bargnani is definitely a disappointment. A bust, maybe not, but a disappointment for sure. Right now, though, I'd say he's properly rated. Everybody knows he's good, but we're now past the point of thinking he will be great. Just too much of a liability on the defensive end of the floor.Jon Landrumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06285647002396519452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9311787837526355.post-39154430124298557982012-06-05T10:43:28.529-04:002012-06-05T10:43:28.529-04:00Less related, but your first paragraph made me won...Less related, but your first paragraph made me wonder your thoughts...as an actual NBA player...Andrea Bargnani: Overrated, Underrated, or pretty accurate? (Yes, I have a huge fantasy NBA mancrush on him, so you're more than welcome to make fun of that.)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13479702144884181982noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9311787837526355.post-48394221795064115212012-06-05T09:09:47.324-04:002012-06-05T09:09:47.324-04:00Ford's current mock has the Kings taking Thoma...Ford's current mock has the Kings taking Thomas Robinson, and Drummond falling to Portland. I have to think that is a better scenario for us, right? One can at least hope...<br /><br />BTW, this is a terrific piece here. I have long suspected that GMs (more specifically in the NFL because I don't follow basketball much, but still...) have not thought hard enough about risk/reward - or, to put it another way, they leave it up to their 'gut instincts' as opposed to actually doing the research. What you have put together here is a pretty solid case for exactly where the risk/reward line should be drawn for the NBA draft... and the result, basically, is that they are drawing it too low.<br /><br />If historically GMs haven't been willing to take that 'risk' until pick #9 or so, then a look at this data should cause them to reconsider and perhaps start considering those high risk/reward players around #6. It seems like in basketball, even moreso than sports, you just can't get 'there' making safe picks all the time. Safe picks will buy you mediocrity, and unless you're extremely lucky (i.e. landing the #1 pick in an Anthony Davis year) you're going to have to take a risk and maybe land a TMac or Dirk.<br /><br />One more thought - I would be even more curious to see this type of analysis done conversely. That is, starting with the most valuable/productive current NBA players (or players over the last decade or two, perhaps), and then backing into where they came from in the draft. It would probably be equally telling.Caseyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16050213069636658568noreply@blogger.com