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| Imagine what this race could have looked like if Kyle Boller had been a bigger factor! |
We’re nearly halfway through the 2011 season and this race is really starting to take shape. Three teams are still winless, and the odds of them notching more than 1 or 2 wins apiece looks pretty bleak. Still, there are a few teams lurking not far behind that could potentially sneak in should The Big Three falter.
Last week served to thin the field considerably. Both Cleveland and Kansas City notched their third wins, dropping out of the race altogether. Carolina, Denver, and Jacksonville suffered costly wins as well, putting themselves two full games out of the lead. As I previously mentioned, that might be two too many! Still, there’s a lot of football left to be played. Let’s see where we stand after seven weeks of action:
(Note: I added season statistics for QB’s)
Dropped Out:
Kansas City Chiefs
Current Record: 3-3
Last Game: Won 28-0 at Oakland
Current Starter: Matt Cassel
Last Game: 15-30, 161 YDS, 0 TD, 2 INT, 38.3 QB Rating
Season Stats
| YDS | TD | INT | COMP % | Y/A | RATING | Run YDS | Run TD |
| 1106 | 8 | 7 | 63.5 | 6.51 | 80.7 | 31 | 0 |
Summary: It seems like such a shame to waste the type of incredible start the Chiefs got themselves off to, but alas, we must wave farewell after 3 straight wins. This of course doesn’t make the Chiefs “good” or even borderline passable as an NFL contender…it just means that they weren’t able to “compete” with top contenders like the Vikings and Colts. Even this win against the 4 win Raiders is tainted by the presence of Kyle Boller and the lack of a presence by the now-injured Darren McFadden. Congratulations on your absolute mediocrity, Chiefs! I’m sure we’ll see you in next year’s Sweepstakes for whoever we decide to crown as the “Next (insert superlative here)” in the NFL.
Cleveland Browns
Current Record: 3-3
Last Game: Won 6-3 vs. Seattle
Current Starter: Colt McCoy
Last Game: 20-35, 178 YDS, 0TD, 1 INT, 59.0 QB Rating
Season Stats
| YDS | TD | INT | COMP % | Y/A | RATING | Run YDS | Run TD |
| 1377 | 8 | 4 | 56.0 | 5.46 | 75.4 | 82 | 0 |
Summary: It’s officially panic time if you’re a Cleveland Browns fan. Colt McCoy was supposed to be “The Answer” that Cleveland fans had long waited for. Where previous “Answers” such as Tim Couch, Derek Anderson, and Brady Quinn had failed; Colt would find a way to deliver. He was accurate, he was mobile, he exhibited excellent leadership, and most of all, he was a winner. Unfortunately, it’s starting to look like he’s also bad at football. Like, really bad. Sure, he’s done an excellent job of taking care of the ball (just 5 turnovers!), but you’ve got to make a play at some point. At the end of the day, there’s no difference in piling up interceptions and piling up 3 and outs. When the game is over, you’ve lost either way. For McCoy, a player who was billed as super-accurate, his horrendous 56.0% completion rate is an absolute killer. Obviously there’s still plenty of football to play, and, given that it’s only his 2nd year, it’s possible he’s just adjusting to the NFL game. Still, the early returns look extremely grim. Unfortunately, their unbelievably easy schedule has gifted them 2 wins against winless teams and one “thank you, Mr. Ref” win against a team that was otherwise bad enough to net only 9 first downs in the entire game. If anybody could use Luck, its Cleveland…as we know, however, luck does not reside in Northern Ohio. Neither will Luck.
Probably dropping out next week
Philadelphia Eagles
Current Record: 2-4
Last Game: Bye
Current Starter: Michael Vick
Last Game: Bye
Season Stats
| YDS | TD | INT | COMP % | Y/A | RATING | Run YDS | Run TD |
| 1573 | 9 | 8 | 61.5 | 7.87 | 84.4 | 372 | 0 |
Summary: Considering the unbelievable amount of scrutiny on the Eagles and the resulting avalanche of commentary, there really isn’t much I can add that you haven’t heard before. The problems are well known and the solutions seem somehow to be out of reach. With the bye week coming at an opportune time, perhaps they’ll finally begin to put things together. Either way, it’ll take an absolute disaster (miracle?) for them to be on this list by Week 10.
Best of the Bad
Carolina Panthers
Current Record: 2-5
Last Game: Won 33-20 vs. Washington
Current Starter: Cam Newton
Last Game: 18-23, 256 YDS, 1 TD, 0 INT, 127.5 QB Rating (59 Run Yds, 1 TD)
Season Stats
| YDS | TD | INT | COMP % | Y/A | RATING | Run YDS | Run TD |
| 2103 | 8 | 9 | 60.3 | 8.35 | 82.8 | 266 | 7 |
Summary: After suffering the first “disaster game” of his career last week, Newton needed a solid performance to quiet his critics and prove that he was more than just an athletic stats machine. He delivered…big time. The overall numbers aren’t nearly as eye-popping as some of his previous 400 yard outings were, but there’s an awful lot of meat here to keep his critics at bay. His completion percentage was high, his Y/A were high, he avoided turnovers, and he displayed an excellent feel for when and where to make plays with his legs. All in all, he was ruthlessly efficient in dismantling the Redskins, and I think this might have been his best game to date. They may only have 2 wins so far, but I have no doubt that they’ll be off this list within a short amount of time. That’s right folks; I’m on board with Cam Newton. He’s good. I was wrong. No denying it.
Lurkers
Minnesota Vikings
Current Record: 1-6
Last Game: Lost 27-33 vs. Green Bay
Current Starter: Christian Ponder
Last Game: 13-32, 219 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT, 59.2 QB Rating
Season Stats
| YDS | TD | INT | COMP % | Y/A | RATING | Run YDS | Run TD |
| 318 | 2 | 2 | 44.9 | 6.49 | 63.1 | 39 | 0 |
Summary: Am I really moving the Vikings off “The Contenders” list after a loss? Why yes, yes I am! To this point, the team has looked mostly lifeless with Donovan McNabb at the helm. He’s not making plays and it’s apparent that the team simply isn’t responding to him. Whether or not the stories of teammates refusing to help him off the ground are true or not, the fact is that this team was a sinking ship (a Love Boat, perhaps?) with McNabb leading the way. Enter Christian Ponder. To be totally fair, Ponder did NOT play a great game. He completed an extraordinary low percentage of his passes and turned the ball over. That having been said, he made far more plays than McNabb was making and the team genuinely responded to him. Given the amount of talent on this roster, it makes little sense that they’re 1-6. Perhaps the infusion of life and energy will be exactly what they need to start reeling off some W’s. Obviously Ponder still has a lot of work left, but if he can build on Sunday’s performance, I don’t see why Minnesota couldn’t wind up with 4 or 5 wins. As sad as it is, that would put them well out of reach of Luck.
Seattle Seahawks
Current Record: 2-4
Last Game: Lost 3-6 at Cleveland
Injured Starter: Tarvaris Jackson
Last Game: Injured
Guy who blew his chance to be the Starter: Charlie Whitehurst
Last Game: 12-30, 97 YDS, 0TD, 1 INT, 35.0 QB Rating (1 Fumble Lost)
Season Stats (Tarvaris Jackson)
| YDS | TD | INT | COMP % | Y/A | RATING | Run YDS | Run TD |
| 1012 | 6 | 5 | 63.1 | 6.45 | 81.0 | 78 | 1 |
Summary: Remember all that stuff I said about Charlie Whitehurst being better than Tarvaris Jackson? Yeah, forget about that. After Sunday’s (whatever you want to call it) against Cleveland, its crystal clear why Seattle didn’t want to go with Whitehurst. He’s beyond awful. Still, the Seahawks actually won the game! Leon Washington’s punt return for TD was more than enough for the victory, but an absolutely egregious blocking in the back call stole kept them from being 3-3 and locked them in the dungeon of mediocrity. With the division well out of shouting distance, you have to wonder if the Seahawks are regretting those 2 wins. Nevertheless, what’s done is done. Seattle is at a significant disadvantage in the Sweepstakes and it’s looking doubtful that the pack will come back far enough to get them back in it.
Denver Broncos
Current Record: 2-4
Last Game: Won 18-15 at Miami (OT)
Savior: Tim Tebow
Last Game: 13-27, 161 YDS, 2 TD, 0 INT, 91.7 QB Rating (65 Rushing YDS)
Season Stats
| YDS | TD | INT | COMP % | Y/A | RATING | Run YDS | Run TD |
| 240 | 3 | 0 | 45.9 | 6.49 | 94.4 | 102 | 1 |
Summary: It can’t be understated how incredible Tebow’s performance on Sunday was. Thanks to his rocket arm, incredible running ability, and my amazing dexterity; Tebow was able to shred several defenses on his way to leading my Madden team to glory. OK, so I realize you don’t care about my Madden team…I just wanted to be able to praise Tebow. After all, there really isn’t much to praise from Sunday’s REAL game, is there? As I mentioned on the podcast, it’s important for all sides to be totally fair and honest when talking about this game. Tebow haters need to acknowledge that he has some obvious talents and he clearly can make plays. Why he is unable to consistently make plays throughout the course of the game is baffling, but the ability is definitely there. On the other hand, Tebow supporters, like me, must acknowledge how awful he was for the vast majority of that game. His accuracy is bad, his delivery is bad, and his pocket presence is bad. Those are kind of important, so the concerns are very real. Also, the concept of Tebow “being a winner” is stupid and needs to be ignored. There is no mystical ability that allows Tebow to pull games out of nowhere. They won the game because they played the worst team in the NFL and they got unbelievably lucky on the onsides kick. At the end of the day, we simply don’t have enough information to make a final judgment. I personally still like him and think he can be really good, thus removing them from “The Contenders” list. Still, the answer is very unclear and a wait-and-see approach is the best course of action here.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Current Record: 2-5
Last Game: Won 12-7 vs. Baltimore
Current Starter: Blaine Gabbart (Still spelled wrong)
Last Game: 9-20, 93 YDS, 0 TD, 0 INT, 59.0 QB Rating
Season Stats
| YDS | TD | INT | COMP % | Y/A | RATING | Run YDS | Run TD |
| 810 | 4 | 2 | 48.3 | 5.66 | 69.4 | 43 | 0 |
Summary: Between this game and the CLE-SEA game, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen more bad football in one week. Honestly, it makes my stomach turn to think about it, so I’m not going to linger. Despite getting the win, Gabbart was once again awful, and he now ranks as the least accurate QB in the NFL. I know they’re intentionally being cautious with him, but it’s totally inexcusable how bad he’s been. Given that he’s throwing a steady diet of screens and other short passes, it’s downright embarrassing that he’s unable to complete even 50% of his passes. I know it’s early, but it might be time to call it on this one…
The Contenders
Arizona Cardinals
Current Record: 1-5
Last Game: Lost 20-32 vs. Pittsburgh
Current Starter: Kevin Kolb
Last Game: 18-34, 272 YDS, 2TD, 1 INT, 86.9 QB Rating
Season Stats
| YDS | TD | INT | COMP % | Y/A | RATING | Run YDS | Run TD |
| 1553 | 7 | 7 | 57.8 | 7.54 | 78.8 | 40 | 0 |
Summary: What does it say about your QB when an 86.9 QB Rating is viewed as a big step forward? The best part is that one of those TD’s was a meaningless Boris Diaw Time (garbage time) score! After the game, Ken Whisenhunt made some cryptic comments about his teams play, but wouldn’t go so far as to say Kolb was in trouble. Well, considering what they’ve already invested in him and that they’re already out of the playoff hunt, there’s no reason to replace him now…especially when he’s such an integral player in the Andrew Luck Hunt!!! The Cardinals obviously have some obstacles to overcome, but they have a much better shot at winning this thing than you can imagine. For one, they have an opportunity to jump one of the leaders if they can drop both of their games against the Rams. Apart from those games, they only play two more teams with losing records, and one of them is Philadelphia. The one win will be tough to overcome, but Kevin Kolb is most definitely up to the task!
St. Louis Rams
Current Record: 0-6
Last Game: Lost 7-34 at Dallas
Current Starter: Sam Bradford
Last Game: Injured
Season Stats
| YDS | TD | INT | COMP % | Y/A | RATING | Run YDS | Run TD |
| 1177 | 3 | 2 | 53.1 | 6.01 | 72.2 | 22 | 0 |
Summary: With Sam Bradford out and the Cowboys finally fielding a healthy squad, it was no surprise to see Dallas stomp all over the woeful Rams. After all, A.J. Feeley isn’t exactly the second coming of Joe Montana. At this point, Bradford is questionable for next week’s game…at that couldn’t possibly matter any less considering they’re playing New Orleans. Even at 0-7 however (I’m just chalking up New Orleans as a loss…), the path to #1 seems long and difficult. Their next four are at Arizona, at Cleveland, vs. Seattle, and vs. Arizona. Surely there’s a win or two SOMEWHERE in that group, right? Assuming Bradford is healthy, I think it’s highly reasonable to expect 2 wins from that group. Even if they don’t win a single extra game the rest of the way, you have to think that 2 wins might actually be too many to land the top pick. Still, it’s unwise to underestimate (overestimate?) a team as bad as the Rams. The majority of their top players are on IR, the blocking is beyond bad, and the defense is giving up record rushing yards to relative unknowns. Even against lowly teams like the Cardinals and Browns, that’s probably enough to chalk up a loss. As a biased blogger who is always looking for interesting things to write about, I’m hoping St. Louis gets the job done and wins the Sweepstakes. With Bradford in just his second year, it would present an interesting dilemma for St. Louis management to sort through.
Miami Dolphins
Current Record: 0-6
Last Game: Lost 15-18 vs. Denver (OT)
Starter: Matt Moore
Last Game: 22-33, 197 YDS, 1 TD, 0 INT, 92.6 QB Rating (1 Fumble Lost)
Season Stats
| YDS | TD | INT | COMP % | Y/A | RATING | Run YDS | Run TD |
| 568 | 1 | 3 | 59.1 | 6.11 | 67.0 | -2 | 0 |
Summary: Unlike the Rams, I’m not sure I see a clear opportunity for Miami to win a game. Where the Rams play the Cardinals and Seahawks twice, the Dolphins easiest games are at Kansas City, vs. Washington, vs. Oakland, and vs. Philadelphia. Basically, the Fish blew their last real opportunity at a victory when they allowed Tebow to “work his magic” and steal the victory.
Indianapolis Colts
Current Record: 0-7
Last Game: Lost 7-62 at New Orleans
Current Starter: Curtis Painter
Last Game: 9-17, 67 YDS, 0 TD, 1 INT, 38.1 QB Rating (1 Fumble Lost)
Season Stats
| YDS | TD | INT | COMP % | Y/A | RATING | Run YDS | Run TD |
| 873 | 5 | 2 | 54.6 | 7.34 | 85.2 | 24 | 0 |
Summary: The Colts ascend to the top spot this week, but only out of respect for their “work” against the Saints. After all, when you’re 0-7 and you lose by nearly 60 points, you definitely deserve at least one stint at the top (in this case, bottom). Do I really think they’re worse than the Dolphins? That’s a tough call on a talent for talent basis, but I tend to lean the Colts way on this one. They’ve hung in there against some decent teams (Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay) and they’re bound to steal one or two along the way. Two games against Jacksonville, two against Tennessee, and one against Carolina give the Colts a reasonable chance of snagging a couple wins. Even if you doubt they can pull it off, it sure seems more likely than the Dolphins getting wins against the Eagles and Raiders! On the other hand, the injuries are starting to pile up again and it’s an absolute certainty that Painter will pull a reverse Manning and make the worst of the situation. Add in a frustrated fan base (as opposed to the Dolphins apathetic one) and a floundering coaching staff, and you never know what sort of horrific finish the Colts are capable of!
Games Andrew Luck might want to watch this week:
Minnesota at Carolina – Not only is this the “Andrew Luck Special of the Week,” it’s probably the most interesting 1:00pm game period! Ponder showed some definite signs last week, but he’s got a long ways to go. It will be interesting to see if he can build on that performance. On the other side, Cam Newton has a chance to notch his second straight victory, effectively taking the Panthers out of the race.
Indianapolis at Tennessee – Tennessee tried to make us believe they were good, but the illusion is long gone after what Houston did to them last week. Now, the winless Colts come to town with a semi-legit shot at claiming their first victory. Can Curtis Painter complete 50% of his passes? Can the defense give up less than 60 points? We shall see!
Detroit at Denver –OK, OK, I’m cheating on this one! Detroit is probably gonna hammer the Broncos. Still, it’s Tebow! You gotta watch Tebow!
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