The Andrew Luck Sweepstakes -- Week 8 Update

Thanks to Steven Jackson and a fierce pass rush, the Rams now find themselves on the outside looking in.

 Every race needs a twist, and the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes finally got its first big twist of the year. With St. Louis’ shocking victory over New Orleans, the race has turned into a two way battle between the Fighting Matt Moores and the Fighting Curtis Painters. Even though it appears as if the number of contenders will be limited the rest of the way, the Rams proved that anything can happen in the unpredictable NFL.

 There is currently a glut of two win teams that are banking on more Rams-like upsets the rest of the way. In truth, I’m desperately hoping this happens, as this race will be infinitely more interesting with a handful of contenders. Thankfully, there’s a lot of bad football left to be played. Let’s see where stand after 8 weeks:

Dropped Out:

Philadelphia Eagles

Current Record:  3-4

Last Game:  Won 34-7 vs. Dallas

Current Starter:  Michael Vick

Last Game:  21-28, 279 YDS, 2 TD, 0 INT, 129.9 QB Rating

Season Stats

YDS	TD	INT	COMP %	Y/A	RATING	Run YDS	Run TD
1852	11	8	63.2	8.12	90.0	422	0

Summary:  It was only a matter of time before Philly put things together and dropped off this list. Quite frankly, it’s a huge accomplishment on their part to still be here through seven weeks of football. Now, in an unconventional twist, the Eagles go from the top ten in the Luck Sweepstakes to top ten in the Power Rankings. Only in the NFL, my friends.

Best of the Bad

Minnesota Vikings

Current Record:  2-6

Last Game:  Won 24-21 vs. Carolina

Current Starter:  Christian Ponder

Last Game:  18-28, 236 YDS, 1 TD, 0 INT, 102.7 QB Rating

Season Stats

YDS	TD	INT	COMP %	Y/A	RATING	Run YDS	Run TD
554	3	2	51.9	7.20	77.5	43	0

Summary:  Even though their “win” can be credited to a HORRIBLE phantom holding call on Steve Smith late in the game, they still go into their bye week with 2 victories credited to their name. As devastating as this win is to their chances, it probably means very little in the end. Fact is, Ponder has looked pretty good through two games. Once again, he’s still got a lot to work on, but his playmaking ability is undeniable. Do you think the Vikings would have had any chance of beating Carolina on the road with McNabb at the helm? I think not. Its way too early to crown Ponder the ‘King of Minneapolis,’ but it certainly appears as if he’s the long term answer. With that important issue seemingly resolved, the Vikings shouldn’t feel too bad about falling short of Luck. However, they need to think twice before racking up a bunch of late season wins. Minnesota’s biggest weakness is clearly the offensive line, and with several top shelf left tackles available in this year’s draft (Matt Kalil, Riley Reiff, etc.), it would be a shame to waste such a promising opportunity to land a franchise cornerstone. As Prince can attest to, another year of Charlie Johnson will probably force the Vikings to use another first rounder on a QB, after Ponder is tragically mangled to death by Julius Peppers.

Carolina Panthers

Current Record:  2-6

Last Game:  Lost 21-24 vs. Minnesota

Current Starter:  Cam Newton

Last Game:  22-35, 290 YDS, 3 TD, 0 INT, 117.6 QB Rating (53 YDS Rushing, 2 Fumbles Lost)

Season Stats

YDS	TD	INT	COMP %	Y/A	RATING	Run YDS	Run TD
2393	11	9	60.6	8.34	87.1	319	7

Summary:  And now for the Panthers end of the Vikings cheap victory. Honestly, I think it was the best possible scenario for Carolina. Sure, being on the winning side of one of these games would be a welcome change, but let’s be honest about things…they aren’t nearly talented enough to actually win anything this year. As great as Cam Newton has been, there are major personnel issues on both sides of the ball; personnel issues that a high draft pick would help solve. To that end, a tough remaining schedule should go a long way towards netting them that pick. Apart from an almost sure victory against the Colts in Week 12, the Panthers other 7 games are all against teams with winning records. Amazingly, a 12 or 13 loss team could somehow sit outside the Top 5 in this dumpster fire of a season, but it would at least give them a fighting chance. Best case scenario for Carolina would be landing in the 5-8 range and taking either WR Justin Blackmon (who could provide a much needed big play threat opposite Steve Smith), or CB Morris Claiborne (big, physical corner to help shore up the Panthers horrendous pass defense).

Lurkers

Seattle Seahawks

Current Record:  2-5

Last Game:  Lost 12-34 vs. Cincinnati

Starter:  Tarvaris Jackson

Last Game:  21-40, 323 YDS, 0 TD, 1 INT, 69.1 QB Rating

Season Stats (Tarvaris Jackson)

YDS	TD	INT	COMP %	Y/A	RATING	Run YDS	Run TD
1335	6	6	60.9	6.78	78.5	80	1

Summary:  Tarvaris Jackson makes his triumphant return and once again proves to everyone just how bad he is. Sadly, he’s the best the Seahawks can do. Since I have no desire to talk about this crappy team and how crappy they played, allow me to introduce an idea I formulated a couple years ago. I think it would have been a perfect option for Seattle to run with prior to the season, especially since talent and skill were obviously not required to obtain the starting QB job. For whatever reason, reality/competition shows are huge right now. American Idol, Dancing with the Stars, and various other shows of that ilk pretty much dominate the network ratings. Why can’t we combine this craze with the even bigger NFL craze? Why can’t we do an American Idol version of an open QB competition? I haven’t hammered out all the details, but I’ve got a general framework for how the show would work. Seattle would need to bring in a large group of contestants to battle it out in camp. Let’s say they bring in 25 guys, ranging from seemingly washed up pro’s, to outstanding college guys who never made it, to various CFL/Arena League/UFL/other semi-pro league guys who “just need a chance.” For the judging, there would be a four person panel, consisting of Kurt Warner (who would host, and serve as mentor/inspiration in the search for “The Next Kurt Warner”), Jon Gruden, Pete Carroll (who has the tie-breaking vote), and Bill Simmons (just for fun). During the competition, Warner would work with the various QB’s on the field, and Gruden would do mini-versions of his “QB Camp” show by breaking down film with the contestants. Little by little, the judges would weed out the field until a certain number are left for preseason. Eliminations will occur after each preseason game, with a winner being chosen at the end. The two runners-up will win one year contracts to fill out the roster. Seriously, how is this not a good idea? You can’t tell me the NFL Network wouldn’t make boatloads of money off this! Also, the Seahawks would probably end up with a better group of QB’s…no, seriously, they would.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Current Record:  2-6

Last Game:  Lost 14-24 at Houston

Current Starter:  Bln Gbbrt

Last Game:  10-30, 97 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT, 26.7 QB Rating

Season Stats

YDS	TD	INT	COMP %	Y/A	RATING	Run YDS	Run TD
907	5	4	45.7	5.24	62.0	57	0

Summary:  My gosh Gbbrt is bad. He’s so bad that I’ve removed all vowels from his name this week. Seriously, how can an NFL QB go 10-30 in a game? I didn’t even think that was possible, especially considering all the short dump-off passes they have him throw. I feel fully confident in saying Gbbrt is not an NFL QB…heck, he might not even be a UFL QB! Unfortunately, it appears as if the Jacksonville defense is a bit too stout to hang with the big boys in this race. With two wins already in tow, and two games left against Indianapolis, it would take a mighty effort for the Jags to win this thing. That’s not surprising considering Jack Del Rio’s penchant for losing absolutely every contest in his path.

St. Louis Rams

Current Record:  1-6

Last Game:  Won 31-21 vs. New Orleans

Current Starter:  Sam Bradford

Last Game:  Injured

Season Stats

YDS	TD	INT	COMP %	Y/A	RATING	Run YDS	Run TD
1177	3	2	53.1	6.01	72.2	22	0

Summary:  That’s right; I’m pulling them out of the ranks of The Contenders. I haven’t forgotten how bad they were for their first six games, but I also haven’t forgotten the now-overlooked talent they have on the team. The Rams didn’t just beat the Saints; they physically dominated them from start to finish. Thanks to a garbage time TD throw, the score makes it look even closer than it actually was. And remember, this occurred without Sam Bradford. That’s not to say the Rams are actually a good team (they’re not), but once Bradford comes back, they should actually have a fairly effective offense. The addition of Brandon Lloyd and the health of Steven Jackson will finally take some of the heat off Bradford, and I’m guessing they’ll find a way to win several of their remaining divisional games.

Denver Broncos

Current Record:  2-5

Last Game:  Lost 10-45 vs. Detroit

Savior:  Tim Tebow

Last Game:  18-39, 172 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT, 56.8 QB Rating (63 YDS Rushing, 1 Fumble Lost)

Season Stats

YDS	TD	INT	COMP %	Y/A	RATING	Run YDS	Run TD
412	4	1	46.1	5.42	75.1	159	1

Summary:  More late game “magic” from Tebow had a huge impact on this game, as his dramatic 14 yd TD to Eric Decker drew the Broncos within 5 TD’s of the Lions! Look, I’m not going to spend a second trying to defend Tebow. You can talk about his offensive line being bad or the offensive scheme being dumb, but that’s relatively meaningless when the guy can’t throw a ball within 20 yards of his intended target. He was really, really, really bad against Detroit, and it’s starting to look like I was completely wrong on this one. I have no issue being wrong; I just wish it wasn’t about Tebow. Like a lot of people, I genuinely like the guy and I sincerely wish him the utmost success in the NFL. Unfortunately, the prospects look pretty bleak. It’s only been two games, so the final word isn’t in…but it kinda is. Still, the Broncos are going to need a lot of help to get back in the hunt for Luck. With a two game deficit over Indy and Miami, that looks unlikely. Still, a top 5 pick could definitely net them a great prospect like Landry Jones, at that definitely wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize.

Arizona Cardinals

Current Record:  1-6

Last Game:  Lost 27-30 at Baltimore

Current Starter:  Kevin Kolb

Last Game:  10-21, 153 YDS,  1 TD, 1 INT, 68.2 QB Rating

Season Stats

YDS	TD	INT	COMP %	Y/A	RATING	Run YDS	Run TD
1706	8	8	56.8	7.52	77.8	45	0

Summary:  I’m dropping them off The Contenders list, but that doesn’t mean I’m in any way “encouraged” by their competitive loss to Baltimore. Jumping out to a 24-3 lead was certainly impressive (and totally shocking), but the actual numbers suggest this was an absolute aberration. Arizona managed a meager 207 total yards, with Baltimore putting up nearly double that number. Arizona moved the chains just 17 times, with Baltimore doing so 30 times. 14 of Arizona’s 27 points were scored thanks to a punt return and a goal line fumble recovery. Throw in a vintage Kevin Kolb performance, and you have the least impressive 27 points in the history of football. So no, I don’t think Arizona can take any positives from Sunday’s loss. They were moved up simply because I thought it fair to have the two remaining zero win teams as The Contenders.

The Contenders

Miami Dolphins

Current Record:  0-7

Last Game:  Lost 17-20 at New York Giants

Starter:  Matt Moore

Last Game:  13-22, 138 YDS, 0 TD, 1 INT, 58.5 QB Rating (1 Rushing TD)

Season Stats

YDS	TD	INT	COMP %	Y/A	RATING	Run YDS	Run TD
706	1	4	59.1	6.14	65.3	29	1

Summary:  Miami has been in an excellent position to win each of their last two games, and has fallen victim to impressive fourth quarter comebacks in both contests. Looking back, they were in a similarly strong position to defeat Cleveland in Week 3, but dropped that one thanks to an improbable and dramatic late scoring drive engineered by Colt McCoy. And you wonder why I think they’re tanking! At first, I was half joking…now, I’m totally serious. I really think they’re TRYING to lose games. Why else would they stick with Matt Moore as QB? Why else would Tony Sparano still be hanging out in the wind? I’m very curious what would happen if the league ever got suspicious...

Indianapolis Colts

Current Record:  0-8

Last Game:  Lost 10-27 at Tennessee

Current Starter:  Curtis Painter

Last Game:  26-49, 250 YDS, 0 TD, 2 INT, 50.6 QB Rating (79 YDS Rushing)

Season Stats

YDS	TD	INT	COMP %	Y/A	RATING	Run YDS	Run TD
1123	5	4	54.2	6.69	75.1	103	0

Summary:  I fully intended on moving the Colts back to #2 this week, but they definitely “earned” the top spot with their awful showing against a not-very-good Titans team. I’ll give them credit for fighting out of a 0-20 first half hole, but I gotta go ahead and take it all back just for getting into that type of hole in the first place…especially with Chris Johnson still running like the Knicks version of Larry Johnson! The biggest question after last week has to be why Curtis Painter was allowed to throw 49 times. Before you give me the “they were losing, they had to throw” reasoning, consider that Indianapolis’ first 8 offensive plays were Curtis Painter passes. All in all, Painter dropped back to pass on 12 of Indy’s 15 first quarter offensive plays. For Peyton Manning, that’s a sound strategy. For Curtis Painter, that’s the same as drinking 4 gallons of Clorox. With 4 winnable games left on the schedule, the Colts have an opportunity to avoid the dreaded 0-16 season, but it sure seems like a stretch with the way they’re currently playing.

Games Andrew Luck might want to watch this week:

Miami at Kansas City – The Chiefs have been racking up meaningless wins against crappy teams (excluding the Chargers), but this at least represents a realistic opportunity for Miami to reel in a win. Of course, it also represents an opportunity to observe a dramatic tank job.

Denver at Oakland – Oakland is out of this race, but injury problems and a QB change have thrown them into utter chaos heading into this game. It’s probably a horrible idea to bet on Tebow, but I actually picked them to win this game. We’ll see how dumb I look afterwards, but it technically is a winnable game for Denver. A third win would likely push them out of the race for good.

St. Louis at Arizona –Here we go! The Andrew Luck game of the week! With Miami and Indy losing as fast as they can, this clash of 1 win teams might actually be an elimination game. Bradford’s status is uncertain, so we could really see some awful football in this one.