The Andrew Luck Sweepstakes -- Week 9 Update

Is that Dan Marino??? (Hint: It's not...it's Matt Moore)

One by one, teams have been dropping out of contention the past several weeks. Finally, we’re left with just one winless team. The Indianapolis Colts. Thanks to Miami’s random beatdown of Kansas City, the Colts are clearly in the driver’s seat, and it seems likely that they’ll be able to coast to victory.

This week can definitely be described as the most important week in Andrew Luck Sweepstakes history, and it will go a long ways towards determining the winner. Each of the top 3 teams has an extremely winnable game on tap, and we very well might see several other teams get brought into the mix thanks to untimely victories by the Colts, Dolphins, and Rams. Let’s see where stand after Week 9:

Dropped Out:

Denver Broncos

Current Record:  3-5

Last Game:  Won 38-24 at Oakland

Savior:  Tim Tebow

Last Game:  10-21, 124 YDS, 2 TD, 0 INT, 98.1 QB Rating (118 Rushing YDS)

Season Stats

YDS	TD	INT	COMP %	Y/A	RATING	Run YDS	Run TD
536	6	1	46.4	5.53	80.1	277	1

Summary:  Only Tim Tebow could guide the lowly Broncos out of the Luck Hunt! Only Tim Tebow could fell the mighty Raiders! Only Tim Tebow could resurrect the memory of John Elway…OK, I’ll stop now. After the past two weeks of garbage, Sunday’s performance against Oakland has to be seen as progress of some sort. Of course, that’s not saying much considering how awful he had been, but still. Tebow lovers can gleefully point to the lack of turnovers, the dynamic running, and the explosive offensive output of the Broncos to say that their hero has finally arrived. This is false. While I’ll gladly admit that Tebow looked better in nearly every facet of the game, it’s hard to be too excited when the biggest praise I can offer is that “he didn’t throw nearly as many wobblers!” Yet, despite my clear understanding of reality, I choose to reject it and believe that Tebow can, and will, win the Super Bowl. This year. On Madden. Moving on. Farewell, Tim! Good to see you off this horrible list!

Best of the Bad

Minnesota Vikings

Current Record:  2-6

Last Game:  Bye

Current Starter:  Christian Ponder

Last Game:  Bye

Season Stats

YDS	TD	INT	COMP %	Y/A	RATING	Run YDS	Run TD
554	3	2	51.9	7.20	77.5	43	0

Summary:  The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time, as Minnesota definitely needs to regroup after a devastating win over Carolina. Christian Ponder is making too many plays! Does he think he’s better than Andrew Luck or something? With 2 wins, Minnesota looks hopelessly behind the Colts. It won’t be this week, but we’ll be ushering them off this list sooner rather than later.

Consolation Prize:  Given their unpredictable dynamic, the Vikings could draft anywhere from 4-12 and I wouldn’t be shocked. Given the fact that Charlie Johnson is their starting LT, I’d say their biggest need is fairly evident. Fortunately for them there is a strong LT crop. The clear cut top LT prospect is USC LT Matt Kalil, but they’d almost definitely need a top 3 or 4 pick to get him. Their real targets will likely be Stanford LT Jonathan Martin and Iowa LT Riley Reiff.

Carolina Panthers

Current Record:  2-6

Last Game:  Bye

Current Starter:  Cam Newton

Last Game:  Bye

Season Stats

YDS	TD	INT	COMP %	Y/A	RATING	Run YDS	Run TD
2393	11	9	60.6	8.34	87.1	319	7

Summary:  I never imagined myself saying this, but I really missed watching Cam Newton last week. If only Carolina and Denver could play sometime, my life would be complete. Thankfully, the Panthers return after their bye week. Like the Vikings, they’re probably not long for this list. They’ve simply been too competitive to lose their remaining 8 games.

Consolation Prize:  Losing out on Luck isn’t a huge deal since they have Newton, but the long term future of this franchise would be significantly helped by finishing with a top 5 pick. However, much like the Vikings, they could end up outside the top 10 very easily. In the best case scenario, Carolina would have an opportunity to take Justin Blackmon, WR out of Oklahoma State. Even if Steve Smith has another 3 years of top level production (iffy at best), the Panthers desperately need to give Newton another playmaker to ease his burden. They may not win a Super Bowl right away, but a Cam Newton/Jonathan Stewart/Steve Smith/Justin Blackmon/Greg Olsen offensive core would definitely put up their fair share of point.

Lurkers

Seattle Seahawks

Current Record:  2-6

Last Game:  Lost 13-23 at Dallas

Starter:  Tarvaris Jackson

Last Game:  17-30, 221 YDS, 0 TD, 3 INT, 40.4 QB Rating

Season Stats (Tarvaris Jackson)

YDS	TD	INT	COMP %	Y/A	RATING	Run YDS	Run TD
1556	6	9	60.4	6.86	73.2	83	1

Summary:  There’s not much analysis to do here except to say that Tarvaris is absolutely awful. Thanks to his 3 interceptions, the Seahawks were able to successfully squander 135 Marshawn Lynch rushing yards en route to a second half meltdown against the Cowboys. At this point, if I’m Seattle, I’m deeply regretting the 2 early season wins. The crazy thing is, there’s a lot more talent on the roster than everyone gave them credit for! Sidney Rice, Doug Baldwin, Ben Obamanu, and Zach Miller are an excellent group of young pass catchers, and Marshawn Lynch looks like he might actually have some life in him after all. The only thing separating them from a potential playoff berth is the fact that Tarvaris Jackson is the QB…yes, he’s that bad. Basically, he’s the anti-Peyton Manning.

Consolation Prize:  There can’t be much consolation in not getting Luck despite their best efforts (and they clearly tried), but you can definitely do worse than Landry Jones. Of course, that’s assuming they draft that high. They have winnable games against St. Louis (twice) and Arizona left, which will either knock them out of the top 5 or allow them to jump their competition. Either way, they’ll probably need to jump Miami to have a real shot at Jones.  

Jacksonville Jaguars

Current Record:  2-6

Last Game:  Bye

Current Starter:  Bln Gbbrt

Last Game:  Bye

Season Stats

YDS	TD	INT	COMP %	Y/A	RATING	Run YDS	Run TD
907	5	4	45.7	5.24	62.0	57	0

Summary:  Yet another bye week in the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes. Are these teams tired of losing or something?

Consolation Prize:  Two games left against Indianapolis pretty much eliminates Jacksonville from contention. Unfortunately, it could also be the difference between the 4^th pick and the 9^th pick. If I were the Jags, I’d be ready to call it quits on Bln Gbbrt, but my guess is that they’re either too dumb or too stubborn (or a combination) to do so. I’ll play along. If they ever expect Gbbrt to develop into the player they thought they drafted, they’re going to have to get him a legit #1 WR. If they can manage a bad enough finish, Justin Blackmon would be the perfect pick here.

Arizona Cardinals

Current Record:  2-6

Last Game:  Lost 13-19 vs. St. Louis (OT)

Current Starter:  Kevin Kolb

Last Game:  Injured

Season Stats

YDS	TD	INT	COMP %	Y/A	RATING	Run YDS	Run TD
1706	8	8	56.8	7.52	77.8	45	0

Summary:  What does it say about Kevin Kolb that John Skelton had more success in one game than Kolb has had all year? You guessed it…TIME TO GIVE SKELTON A $65 MIL DEAL!!! After all, that seems to be the Arizona way, right? Anyways, Sunday’s OT thriller over the Rams essentially eliminates the Cardinals from the Luck Sweepstakes and leaves them staring at another year of failure. But hey, it’s totally worth that memorable win over the Rams, right?

Consolation Prize:  It took all they had to defeat the 3^rd worst team in the NFL, so I doubt we’re staring at the beginning of something big here. They’re almost assuredly going to be picking somewhere between 4-6, which gives them a golden opportunity to fill the non-Kevin Kolb related holes…because when you spend $65 million on a guy, it means you’re not allowed to replace him even if he’s one of the 5 worst starters in the league. They’ve been awful all over the field, so their options are seemingly limitless. Since Matt Kalil will likely be gone, and since Kevin Kolb would be bad with or without protection, I think they’d be wise to take North Carolina DE Quentin Coples. Coples would be a huge upgrade over Travis LaBoy, as he is equally talented at rushing the passer and anchoring against the run.

One Win Wonders

Miami Dolphins

Current Record:  1-7

Last Game:  Won 31-3 at Kansas City

Starter:  Matt Moore

Last Game:  17-23, 244 YDS, 3 TD, 0 INT, 147.5 QB Rating

Season Stats

YDS	TD	INT	COMP %	Y/A	RATING	Run YDS	Run TD
950	4	4	61.6	6.88	79.7	32	1

Summary:  If the Dolphins were intending to tank for Luck, then somebody must have forgotten to give Matt Moore the green light on Sunday. Not only did they get their first victory of the season, they absolutely annihilated a supposedly “red hot” Chiefs team that had won their previous four contests! What’s more, their big “ace in the hole,” Matt Moore, looked like vintage Dan Marino! What the heck is going on??? Let’s be honest about this; unless Moore is going to turn into a top 10 QB (no), this is a disastrous win. Shy of a miracle Colts victory, the Dolphins have effectively ruined their chance to land the best QB prospect in over a decade. Heck, even IF the Colts were to lose, the SoS tiebreaker would likely favor the Colts anyways! Dumb, dumb, dumb win. If Tony Sparano didn’t deserve to be canned before, he certainly does now.

Consolation Prize:  Either way, they badly need a QB. Chad Henne clearly isn’t the long term answer, and I seriously doubt Matt Moore ever approaches that level of play again. Landry Jones might not be Andrew Luck, but he’s not nearly as far behind as people seem to think. In most years, Jones is the clear cut #1, so ending up with him is definitely not a loss.

St. Louis Rams

Current Record:  1-7

Last Game:  Won 13-19 at Arizona

Current Starter:  Sam Bradford

Last Game:  23-36, 255 YDS, 0 TD, 1 INT, 73.3 QB Rating

Season Stats

YDS	TD	INT	COMP %	Y/A	RATING	Run YDS	Run TD
1432	3	3	54.7	6.17	72.3	24	0

Summary:  I’m absolutely baffled by Sam Bradford’s lack of production last week and serious concerns are starting to pop up. The Rams glut of injuries and the lack of protection are certainly plausible scapegoats for Bradford’s lackluster sophomore campaign, but that doesn’t account for how bad he was this Sunday. Going against one of the worst secondaries in the league with Steven Jackson at full strength and Brandon Lloyd lined up on the outside, you’d think Bradford could find a way to move the ball, but that clearly wasn’t the case. After their shocking win over New Orleans two weeks ago, it looked like they were out of this race, but they definitely proved they’re here to stay. Not only that, they proved they might actually be the top competition to Indianapolis. Given their division, it’s very possible the Rams would win the SoS tiebreaker. Let the fun begin!

Consolation Prize:  As long as they maintain their losing ways, there’s pretty much no way the Rams can lose…if that makes any sense. Winning the Luck Sweepstakes would garner them a bounty of picks since they almost assuredly would deal the pick. Losing the Sweepstakes would allow them to take Matt Kalil at #2. The Rams have had major protection issues and 2^nd year LT Rodger Saffold hasn’t even remotely approached his level of play from last year. No matter who’s slinging it, be it Luck or Bradford, the offense isn’t scoring if they can’t keep the QB upright.

The Leader

Indianapolis Colts

Current Record:  0-9

Last Game:  Lost 7-31 at Atlanta

Current Starter:  Curtis Painter

Last Game:  13-27, 98 YDS, 0 TD, 1 INT, 41.9 QB Rating

Season Stats

YDS	TD	INT	COMP %	Y/A	RATING	Run YDS	Run TD
1221	5	5	53.3	6.26	70.5	108	0

Summary:  The Colts are well accustomed to being in first place…just not this kind of first place. The truth is that I’m starting to run out of ways to describe how bad Curtis Painter and the Colts are. After all, how many ways are there to describe a bridge collapsing (the equivalent to Indy’s season)? After putting together a string of 5 straight competitive losses, it finally looks like the Colts have thrown in the towel, as is evidenced by their current run of 3 straight blowout losses. On the bright side, if there’s one job you would definitely want to entrust to Curtis Painter, it’s losing 7 straight games. With a winnable game against Jacksonville on tap this week, they’ll need every last errant throw they can get.

Games Andrew Luck might want to watch this week:

Tennessee at Carolina – I’ve probably said this before, but this is probably the last time we’ll be talking about Cam Newton in this weekly spot. Tennessee looks bad right now, and Carolina looks…well, at least they’re home.

Washington at Miami –John Beck returns to the team that drafted and cut him to take his revenge! Ladies and gentlemen, the John Beck Bowl!

Jacksonville at Indianapolis –This will be the best chance the Colts have all year of getting a win. If they can’t get this one at home, over Bln Gbbrt, then it’s simply not going to happen. If I were Indy, I’d call 50 passing plays to ensure a close loss.

St. Louis at Cleveland –As bad as the Rams looked last week, the Browns looked even worse. In fact, other than the Colts, nobody has been playing as bad as the Browns. It’ll take a monumental effort for St. Louis to overcome Cleveland’s offensive ineptitude, but they simply can’t afford a win at this stage of the game.