New people, same incompetence for Orlando

Ryan Anderson and his beard are thrilled to escape Orlando

Yesterday afternoon, it was reported by various media outlets that Ryan Anderson was going to the New Orleans Hornets via sign-and-trade. Feeling the 4yr $36M (rumored) deal was “too rich for their blood,” the Magic agreed to ship off the 24 year old PF in return for Gustavo Ayon.

Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.

At this point, it almost seems like Orlando is trying some elaborate psychological experiment to see just how tortured and exasperated the fan base can be before they literally besiege the arena with torches and pitchforks. Either that, or God truly hates the city and its people. As Brian Fantana once said, “Ron, I know it sounds harsh, but God does not want her to live.”

Maybe it’s not God wishing ill on the Magic, but it surely is somebody. It’s the owner, it’s the old GM, it’s the new GM, it’s Dwight Howard, it’s this goofy Alex Martins fellow. Heck, it’s probably even the guy who has to clean the vaunted children’s area at the Amway Center. Since their shocking run of luck and success to kick off the franchise’s existence, the Orlando Magic have been a complete train wreck. Highlights include running Shaq out of town, Penny Hardaway’s knee, Grant Hill’s ankle, Tracy McGrady’s back, Rashard Lewis’ contract, and trading Marcin Gortat in a deal that netted them $12 billion worth of Hedo Turkoglu and Gilbert Arenas. Even the Cavs feel sorry for them over this!

But the Ryan Anderson thing…that’s got to be a new low. It had nothing to do with bad luck like the injuries to Hardaway, Hill, and T-Mac. It was nothing like the Shaq situation. And as bad as the Rashard Lewis and Arenas acquisitions were, at least you can give Orlando some effort points for actively trying to bring in talent. But this? Letting Ryan Anderson, the team’s only good young piece, walk for the pittance sum of Gustavo Ayon? That’s just dumb. Pure, unadulterated incompetence. It’s as if they’re not even trying.

Just moments after seeing the news hit ESPN, I tweeted, “How can Orlando give Jameer Nelson nearly $7M/yr and reject Ryan Anderson at $9M/yr in the very same summer?!” That seems like a good place to start. If 30 year old Jameer Nelson is worth 3YR $20M to Orlando, then how is 24 year old Ryan Anderson not worth 4YR $36M? Here is how they compared last season:

	PPG	RPG	APG	TS%	eFG%	PER	WS/48
Anderson	16.1	7.7	0.9	.589	.548	21.2	.219
Nelson	11.9	3.2	5.7	.524	.499	14.6	.099

This isn’t even close. Anderson is significantly better than Nelson in every category, save assists. I mean, look at the difference in WS/48! This tells us more than just “Anderson is twice the player Nelson is,” though; it tells us definitively that Ryan Anderson is really freaking good! His PER is well above the league average of 15.0, and his WS/48 is more than double league average. In fact, Anderson produced more Win Shares per 48 minutes played than Dwight Howard did last season.

One more, in case you didn’t catch on. Anderson’s Offensive Rating (estimate of points produced per 100 possessions) was 124. Howard’s was 106, Lebron’s was 118, and Durant’s was 114. That’s not to say he’s in that group, because he’s not. He is, however, a serious talent on the offensive end of the floor.

So, if we’re using the same measure of valuation that led Orlando to give Nelson $7M/year, Ryan Anderson is worth, what, $80M/year? More? But that doesn’t necessarily prove Anderson is worth $9M/year. It only proves that A.) he’s worth significantly more than Jameer Nelson, B.) Orlando is really dumb for choosing Nelson over Anderson, and C.) Jameer Nelson sucks. To see how much Anderson is really worth, let’s see how he stacks up against the rest of the NBA’s power forwards:

PER

RANK	NAME	PER
1	Kevin Love	25.41
2	Blake Griffin	23.50
3	LaMarcus Aldridge	22.73
4	Paul Millsap	21.85
5	Dirk Nowitzki	21.81
6	DeMarcus Cousins	21.72
7	Ryan Anderson	21.23

Ranking below Anderson are guys like Josh Smith, Pau Gasol, Kevin Garnett, David Lee, and Chris Bosh. Of all these guys, only Paul Millsap makes around what Anderson is set to make. Most make more…a lot more.

Win Shares

RANK	NAME	PER
1	Kevin Love	10.0
2	Blake Griffin	9.2
3	Ryan Anderson	8.9

The list is getting smaller…

WS/48

RANK	NAME	PER
1	Kevin Love	.223
2	Ryan Anderson	.219

Including everybody, not just power forwards, Ryan Anderson ranked 9th in the entire NBA in WS/48. Had he played enough minutes the year before (he was a backup), he would have ranked 7th in the NBA. And yet, 4yrs $36M for this level of production was just “too rich for their blood.”

Not only is $9M/year not “too rich” for Ryan Anderson, it’s an absolute bargain. By nearly every measure, Anderson is a top 10 PF in the NBA, and at just 24 years old, he should only get better in the next few seasons. As early as this season, I expect Anderson will be a 20/8 player. And with his ability to face up and shoot the ball from all over the court, Anderson is the prototype “4 man” in today’s game.

What Orlando was thinking, I will never know. With Dwight Howard hanging the franchise out to dry, the last thing they should have been interested in was losing Ryan Anderson. If they’re intent on moving Howard for Brook Lopez, why not build around that young frontcourt? Better yet, why not eschew the crappy Dwight Howard offers and make one last “all-in” effort at a title? Why couldn’t the Magic piece together a sign and trade for Nash? They couldn’t have packaged #19, a 2014 first rounder, and Nelson in a deal that netted them Nash?

Maybe that’s not the deal, but at least make an effort. Instead, the Magic opted for Plan C – let our only good young player walk away for nothing even though we had the right to match his incredibly cheap offer. Great move. And this coming from the Magic’s new GM, who supposedly places a great deal of value on advanced stats. When Rob Hennigan came over from the OKC Thunder, it was supposed to signal an end to the mismanagement that defined the Magic under Otis Smith. Apparently that will not be the case.

The names may have changed, but it looks like things are the same in Orlando. Thanks to poor management, the team will now enter their rebuilding phase with a significant handicap. Ryan Anderson would have been an excellent building block for their future – their only building block, in fact. $9m/year for a player of his caliber should have been a no-brainer. It’s a big get for New Orleans, who now have multiple offensive weapons to play with Anthony Davis. For Orlando, it’s a disastrous loss that will likely set them back a ways in their rebuilding.

So to all you Magic fans out on the ledge, waiting to see if this new hotshot GM knows what he’s doing before you take the plunge, I offer you one piece advice.

Jump.