Is Michael Vick Done?

Is Vick's turnover epidemic permanent?

So here’s a newsflash for everyone – Michael Vick and the Eagles are a mess. A complete and utter mess. Philly currently sits just one game out in the NFC East at 3-3, but that really doesn’t tell the story of how bad things have been. The highlights (lowlights) of their season include:

- Losing their last two and three of their last four.
- Coughing up fourth quarter leads in each of their last three games.
- Winning their three games by a combined total of just 4 points.
- Nearly losing to the Browns, which is the worst fate imaginable.

Worse yet, the Eagles seem to be their own worst enemy, turning the ball over at an alarming rate and doing everything in their power to turn the entire city of Philadelphia against them.

Perhaps this shouldn’t be surprising considering what happened last year, but it bears watching anytime a team wastes as much talent as the Eagles have. After all, the Eagles were supposed to be leading the NFC in categories such as points, yards and wins; not fumbles and total giveaways. Yet, here we are, six games into the 2012 season, and the “Dream Team” is at or near the bottom of not only those categories, but also penalties and third down conversion rate. The quarterback can’t hold onto the ball, the head coach is practically a wanted man and the fans are ready to riot. It’s entirely possible that this iteration of the Philadelphia Eagles is one of the biggest disappointments in NFL history.

Today added a new layer of disappointment and embarrassment to the “Dream Team” era, as embattled defensive coordinator, Juan Castillo, was trotted out by Andy Reid for what was essentially a public execution. Juan Castillo, the guy who had been the offensive line coach since 1998 and had worked exclusively on offense since 1990. Juan Castillo, the guy who’s only experience as a defensive coordinator was from 1986-1989…at a Texas high school! Juan Castillo, the guy who Andy Reid stupidly promoted to a position he had little to no chance to succeed in. In this case, Castillo did not fail the franchise; the franchise failed him, and subsequently themselves. Honestly, I feel bad for the guy.

Typically, debacles of this magnitude originate from the top, and this is no exception. When Joe Banner opened up the bank vault two offseasons ago, it signaled a seismic shift in how the Eagles run their football team. Prior to that, the organization had been noted for its masterful handling of the salary cap and its commitment to building deep, complete teams through the draft. Splashy acquisitions like Jevon Kearse and Terrell Owens were the exceptions, not the rule. Then, suddenly, the entire paradigm shifted. Large amounts of money were thrown at a handful of high profile free agents, while offensive line, linebacker, and safety were completely ignored. The results were, as we all know, disastrous. Building through free agency has never been a successful way to operate an NFL team.

But the foibles of the Eagles front office are something we already know. We know they were short-sighted and irresponsible in how they built this team. That’s not new information. Neither is the bizarre way in which Andy Reid has led the team, from the unexplainable hiring of Castillo to the (insert way in which Andy Reid has sucked at coaching…there are many).

What we don’t know, however, is what the heck happened to their quarterback, and whether he can be part of the solution, going forward, rather than part of the problem. Because right now, he’s not just a part of the problem, he’s a HUGE part of the problem. His poor play and propensity to put the ball on the ground has cost the team multiple victories and a likely playoff spot last year.

What happened to him? What happened to Michael Vick to turn him into this Vince Young-ian type of player? Remember, just a few short years ago, we were talking about “The Year of Vick” and how he was the front runner for the MVP and how the Eagles were an unstoppable force. Then, like Keyser Soze, *poof* he’s gone. The accuracy, gone. The pocket awareness, gone. He doesn’t even remotely resemble that Michael Vick. The question the Eagles must answer is, can he again?

Allow me to skip the formalities and just tell you my thoughts. No, he cannot ever resemble that player again. It would be one thing if Vick was in a seven or eight game slump, but that’s not the case. What we’re looking at is a prolonged period of subpar play from an over 30 player who relies on athleticism. To me, the answer is clear. Vick is done. Not done as in, “he’ll be average to slightly above average for a few more years but will never be elite” done, but done as in “he’s not fit to be a starter in the NFL” done. As in, done done. That may seem drastic, but let’s look at how far he’s fallen since that random run of greatness and at how long his current slump is.

Here are Vick’s stats from Week 1 through Week 15 of 2010, a stretch in which Vick looked like he had put everything together and become the player we all thought he would be:

Games	Yards	Comp%	Y/A	TD	INT	QB Rating	Rush YDS	Rush TD	Fumbles Lost
11	2755	63.2%	8.4	20	5	103.6	613	8	1

Now, here are Vick’s stats since Week 15 of 2010, a stretch spanning a year and a half:

Games	Yards	Comp%	Y/A	TD	INT	QB Rating	Rush YDS	Rush TD	Fumbles Lost
21	5490	59.2%	7.5	28	24	81.7	889	4	11

This represents a jarringly massive drop-off from that previous stretch. The comparisons on nearly every important stat aren’t even close:

	Comp%	Y/A	TD%	INT%	TO/G
Good	63.2%	8.4	6.1%	1.5%	.55
Bad	59.2%	7.5	3.8%	3.3%	1.67

Vick’s completion percentage, Y/A, TD%, and INT% represent average to below average production over the past two years, while his turnover ratio is absolutely over-the-top insane. Want to know why the Eagles can’t consistently win? Because they’re QB turns it over nearly two times per game!

Again, I can’t pin down exactly why Vick went from outrageously good to outrageously bad in such a short time. Could have had a fluke stretch of brilliance, could be the injuries piling up, could be the league figuring him out, could be a lot of things. What I do know is that his “golden age” is done. Again, we’re not talking about a small sample of poor play, we’re talking about 21 games worth of garbage. Keep holding out hope if you must, but the reality is that we have likely seen the best of Michael Vick. At 32 and with a lot of tread on the tires, his prime has likely passed him by, and along with it the Eagles playoff hopes. If it were me, dumping Juan Castillo wouldn’t be the only big announcement I’d be making today.

The Rex Grossman Zone
Any QB with a QB Rating under 39.6
Present Membership: Weeden (5.1), Cutler (28.2), BADGABMAXULTRA (37.7), Cassel (38.1), Tannehill (39.0), Bradford (39.2)

There were some bad ones this past week, but none quite bad enough to enter the Grossman Zone…

…unless we’re counting John Skelton’s 6.2 QB Rating in 10 passes! I kinda feel like I’m cheating if I put him in, but then again, 6.2 in 10 passes is pretty extreme. Let’s put this one to vote, shall we? I’ll get the poll up and you tell me if he should be in the Grossman Zone.

The Vinny Testaverde Zone

Brandon Weeden – 10 INT’s in 231 attempts (4.3%)
Matt Cassel – 9 INT’s in 176 attempts (5.1%)
Tony Romo – 9 INT’s in 187 attempts (4.8%)
Philip Rivers – 9 INT’s in 209 attempts (4.3%)
Andy Dalton – 9 INT’s in 215 attempts (4.2%)

This list still feels empty without Carson Palmer, but getting Rivers on here definitely helps fill in that void.

Power Rankings

11. Denver Broncos (3-3) – Getting through this opening stretch at 3-3 is a huge victory for Denver. Watching Peyton Manning blow up and play like an MVP is an even bigger one. Spotting two and three TD leads to the opposition…not so much.

10. Seattle Seahawks (4-2) – Hey, Seahawks, I know you’re super excited about your big win over New England, but could you please win something on the road so I know exactly where to put you in these rankings? Thanks, guys. Roadies against San Fran and Detroit in their next two, so we should get an idea of how legit this team is.

9. Baltimore Ravens (5-1) –They technically won on Sunday, but not really. Not after losing Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb for the season. With those injuries, plus the Suggs’ ongoing recover and Ngata’s balky knee, I just don’t see how Baltimore can maintain.

8. Atlanta Falcons (6-0) – Am I really dropping the league’s only undefeated team? Why yes, yes I am. ESPN can make out with them all they want, because it doesn’t matter to me. All I’m seeing is a team that has yet to play a team over .500 and that has struggled mightily to beat some pretty below average competition. I’m not trying to be contradictory, just observant and not beholden to record.

7. New England Patriots (3-3) – Clock management issues killed the Pats on Sunday and have actually played a part in at least one of their other losses as well. But while everyone else is freaking out over the 3-3 record, it’s worth noting that New England is a chippy field goal, a blown call, a poor coaching decision and four whole points from being undefeated. Let’s not bail on them yet, OK?

6. Green Bay Packers (3-3) – Thanks to a faster offensive pace and much more disciplined play, the Packers finally looked like the team that won 15 games just one season ago. And don’t look now, but the “struggling” Aaron Rodgers is suddenly leading the league in QB Rating and TD’s once again.

5. San Francisco 49ers (4-2) – I feel certain I’ll be kicking myself for dropping them down this far, but what else am I supposed to do after the butt kicking they just received? This is now two times they’ve lost a turnover battle, turning it over three times in both contests, something that was completely unthinkable last year. It could be nothing, or it could be that regression so many talked about before the season. Either way, Harbaugh and the team absolutely have to find a way to perform when facing a deficit, or this season won’t turn out any better than the last.

4. Houston Texans (5-1) – Again, I think they’re a really good team, probably the best in the AFC. But the Packers are the only good team they’ve played all year and their performance certainly doesn’t make them look good.

3. New York Giants (4-2) – Let me be clear, the Giants are going to screw things up and drop out of this spot. They’ll probably lose to the Redskins or some crap like that, because that’s just what they do. When they’re playing at their peak, however, they’re nearly impossible to beat. They did that on Sunday, and I’m giving them their due credit for it.

2. Chicago Bears (4-1) – I hate myself for this. I really do. Thankfully, I’m not the only one pulling the trigger. Bill Barnwell also ranks them at #1, though it must be added that he stupidly ranked the 49ers over the Giants as well. I guess that’s not the most rousing defense for my ranking of the Bears, but oh well.

So why the Bears? Well, it’s not because they’re a “great” team or anything, but as we’ve all come to find out, there really aren’t any “great” teams this year. What they are is a complete team with dynamic stars and a bevy of solid, reliable role players. They can throw it, they can run it, and they can stop you from doing those things. And, as always, they have this weird, otherworldly ability to be in the right place at the right time that only the Bears have. Nobody scores more non-offensive TD’s than these guys! So there you have it. Chicago Bears, #1 team. I will now repeatedly punch myself in the face and prepare for an inevitable Bears meltdown this week.

1.Nobody – There are no good teams in the NFL, apparently. Nobody deserves this spot, so it shall remain empty.