The Geno Smith Sweepstakes: Week 4 Update

Celebrate, Geno! You're the new Grand Prize!

The unthinkable has happened. OK, maybe using the word ‘unthinkable’ is a bit much, but the switch to ‘The Geno Smith Sweepstakes’ is certainly not something I anticipated when the season started. Other than the most rabid West Virginia fans, who really could have? Barkley, with all his talents, all his experience, and all his pedigree seemed like an unassailable lock for the Sweepstakes Grand Prize. Just four games later, though, he’s now staring up a guy playing like a video game version of himself. And if he doesn’t get his stuff together, he’ll soon find himself sinking under the sudden E.J. Manuel surge as well.

The question now is whether ANY of these QB’s will end up being the top overall pick. I may be going out on a limb here, but I’m actually going to predict that three of these guys will end up as top 10 picks, with QB’s going 1-2 in the draft just like they did last year. My picks; Geno Smith #1 overall, E.J. Manuel #2. In many ways, Smith and Manuel closely resemble Robert Griffin (Smith) and Cam Newton (Manuel).  In a copycat league like the NFL, you know those comparisons will run wild and will carry a lot of weight come draft day. While I don’t think either player is quite as gifted as their supposed doppelganger, they would certainly make excellent prizes for any number of QB needy teams.

Let’s see where things stand through four weeks:

The Prizes (QB’s only)

Worth Mentioning:  Tyler Wilson (Arkansas), Aaron Murray (Georgia), Tyler Bray (Tennessee)

Honorable Mention:  Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
Stats:  17-30, 242 YDS, TD, 2 INT, Rush TD in 24-27 L to Cincinnati
Season Stats:  1093 YDS, 8 TD, 6 INT, 52.7%, 7.4 Y/A, 3 Rush TD
Breakdown:  It’s only out of consideration for his current “real” draft stock that I’m even listing him as an Honorable Mention. This guy stinks, plain and simple.

Fifth Prize:  Tahj Boyd, Clemson
Stats:  28-38, 367 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT, 42 Rush YDS, 1 TD in 45-31 W over Boston College
Season Stats:  1351 YDS, 12 TD, 3 INT, 69.4%, 8.4 Y/A
Breakdown:  Quite frankly, I’m surprised Boyd isn’t getting more buzz as an NFL prospect. No, his size isn’t ideal, but he isn’t Russell Wilson short or anything. His accuracy issues have been seemingly resolved, and he looks much more comfortable in the pocket as opposed to last season. If he keeps throwing the ball this way, the NFL will have no choice but to give him a look.

Fourth Prize:  Landry Jones, Oklahoma
Stats:  Bye
Season Stats:  772 YDS, 5 TD, 2 INT, 63.6%, 7.2 Y/A
Breakdown:  Jones got a bye week to recover from the stink bomb he and the Sooners put up last week.  By the way, Murray and Boyd have been really impressive thus far, and it was tough keeping them out. Maybe a big shakeup next week?

Third Prize:  E.J. Manuel, Florida State
Stats:  19-26, 242 YDS, TD in 30-17 W over South Florida
Season Stats:  1147 YDS, 9 TD, 1 INT, 73.3%, 9.6 Y/A
Breakdown:  Manuel didn’t blow it up like he did last against Clemson, but he didn’t really have to against the likes of South Florida. Still, he continued to be the model of efficiency and accuracy that we’ve seen all year. Out of all the guys in this draft, Manuel is easily the guy I’m most excited to play with in Madden 14.

Second Prize:  Matt Barkley, USC
Stats:  Bye
Season Stats:  1005 YDS, 12 TD, 5 INT, 61.5%, 7.0 Y/A
Breakdown:  I’d be lying if I used the old “it’s not about you” line. I mean, it’s partly about Geno Smith, but it’s definitely about Barkley as well. While Smith has dominated the competition, inferior as it may be, Barkley has come up small in the majority of this season’s contests. Maybe the pressure’s getting to him? Maybe he’s the next Matt Leinart? Who knows?  Regardless, I can’t keep calling it ‘The Matt Barkley Sweepstakes’ with a straight face.

Grand Prize:  Geno Smith, West Virginia
Stats:  45-51, 656 YDS, 8 TD in 70-63 W over Baylor
Season Stats:  1728 YDS, 20 TD, 0 INT, 83.4%, 10.2 Y/A
Breakdown:  I had no intention of moving Geno up, regardless of how well he played last Saturday. Then that happened. All I can say is, I can’t wait to see him play Texas this weekend.

Now, onto the NFL side of the race:

Dropping Out

Minnesota Vikings
Record:  3-1
Last Game:  Won 20-13 at Detroit Lions
Current Starter:  Christian Ponder
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
824	4	0	68.3	6.7	97.7

Breakdown:  Minnesota dropping out after Week 4 is pretty much the same thing as a 16-seed making it to the Elite Eight. Yet, here we are four games in, the Vikings have four wins and Christian Ponder has zero interceptions. The NFL makes no sense.

Washington Redskins
Record:  2-2
Last Game:  Won 24-22 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current Starter:  Robert Griffin III
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1070	4	1	69.4	8.6	103.2

Breakdown:  I put them on the list, then I took them off the list, then I put them back on the list, and now I’m taking them back off. Honestly, I feel bad about the whole thing. Nobody should have their hearts played with that way. (Except for maybe the Redskins…and Giants)

Latecomers

Detroit Lions
Record:  1-3
Last Game:  13-20 L vs. Minnesota Vikings
Current Starter:  Matthew Stafford
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1182	3	4	65.9	6.8	81.6

Breakdown:  Who the heck saw this coming? Are they really this bad? (The Madden Curse says yes, they are.)

We’re not all that impressed with Barkley Smith, so…

Buffalo Bills
Record:  2-2
Last Game:  Lost 28-52 vs. New England Patriots
Current Starter:  Ryan Fitzpatrick
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
931	12	7	57.6	7.4	89.8

Breakdown:  Sure, they got hammered in the second half, but the important thing to keep in mind is that they tried to win the game. Apparently 7 INT’s in four games isn’t enough to convince Ralph Wilson the team needs to commit to the Sweepstakes. Either that, or Wilson mistakenly believes Fitzpatrick is actually Jim Kelly and he’s just having an “off year.”

Tennessee Titans
Record:  1-3
Last Game:  Lost 14-38 at Houston Texans
Current Starter:  Jake Locker
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
Dead	Dead	Dead	Dead	Dead	Dead

Breakdown:  OK, so the Titans got crushed by the Texans. Who hasn’t been down that road? With seven games remaining against fellow Sweepstakes competitors, the Titans are a long shot at best. Then again, we might have to rethink things if Locker’s shoulder can’t stay put.

St. Louis Rams
Record:  2-2
Last Game:  Won 19-13 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Current Starter:  Sam Bradford
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
881	4	4	61.6	7.0	80.1

Breakdown:  This is what good coaching gets you. Last year, St. Louis played like crap and got crushed in nearly every game. This year, St. Louis is still playing like crap, except they have the ability to suck the opposition into some strange vortex of suckiness and mediocrity, resulting in a few cheap wins. Good work, Jeff Fisher?

We’re not sure what the plan is around here…

Carolina Panthers
Record:  1-3
Last Game:  Lost 28-30 at Atlanta Falcons
Current Starter:  Cam Newton
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1013	4	5	63.6	9.5	87.5

Breakdown:  Everyone is killing Ron Rivera for his decision to punt the ball/game away to Matt Ryan, but perhaps we’re not looking at this the right way. Is it possible that Rivera is just playing the Sweepstakes? Is it possible he knows how devastating a win like that would be? Could he be…an evil genius? No, no it is not. That is all.

New Orleans Saints
Record:  0-4
Last Game:  Lost 27-28 at Green Bay Packers
Current Starter:  Drew Brees
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1350	10	5	57.6	7.1	86.1

Breakdown:  Seems weird to move them up after yet another loss, but if you watched them play on Sunday, you’d know they simply don’t belong on this list. It’s only out of respect for their early failures that I keep them here at all. But seriously, they gotta win sometime, right? Right?

New York Jets
Record:  2-2
Last Game:  Lost 0-34 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Current Starter:  Mark Sanchez
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
813	5	4	49.2	6.4	69.6

Breakdown:  Things are getting very ugly for the Jets and for Mark Sanchez. Running backs are playing in the secondary, quarterbacks are lining up all over the place, and goodness knows who is going to play WR now. Quite frankly, if it weren’t for the specter of Tim Tebow and a pile of miracle victories, the Jets would easily rank in the next group.

The Dark Horses

Kansas City Chiefs
Record:  1-3
Last Game:  Lost 20-37 vs. San Diego Chargers
Current Starter:  Matt Cassel
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1058	5	7	58.4	6.6	70.4

Breakdown:  Can you really be considered a dark horse when your only win is against an 0-4 team and you have a point differential of -48, the third worst in the NFL? Better yet, can you really be considered a dark horse when your QB is Matt Cassel? Only God knows. But hey, cheer up, Chiefs fans. It’s not like your coach openly insinuated that your QB was incompetent or anything…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record:  1-3
Last Game:  Lost 22-24 vs. Washington Redskins
Current Starter:  Josh Freeman
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
790	5	4	54.6	6.6	75.3

Breakdown:  They sure do have a way of losing close games to semi-incompetent teams, don’t they? You know what, maybe they didn’t quit on Raheem Morris last year. Maybe they really are that bad? But hey, cheer up, Bucs fan (just one left). At least your team didn’t spend themselves into oblivion and waste a valuable first round pick on a RB who’s averaging about 50 yards per game…

The (Outside) Favorites

Miami Dolphins
Record:  1-3
Last Game:  Lost 21-24 at Arizona Cardinals
Current Starter:  Ryan Tannehill
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1046	2	6	55.9	7.3	66.4

Breakdown:  You know what; the Dolphins are just two overtime games away from being 3-1. How bizarre is that??? Now that Brian Hartline has emerged as a ‘Super Wes Welker,’ the Dolphins offense has some legitimate punch to go along with Reggie Bush, even if Tannesuck typically ruins their drives with terrible interceptions. With five of their next six being against fellow Sweepstakes competitors, the Dolphins commitment to this thing will be severely tested. Then again, what do they need a high draft pick for when they’re just going to reach for a second round prospect anyways?

Oakland Raiders
Record:  1-3
Last Game:  Lost 6-37 at Denver Broncos
Current Starter:  Carson Palmer
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1081	5	2	61.1	6.7	86.0

Breakdown:  Would it be appropriate to call this a comeback loss? Does such a thing exist? If so, the Raiders just pulled the Picasso of comeback losses! Not only did they lose, they got completely humiliated by a hated division rival and, in the process, made Peyton Manning look like a healthy, 28 year old version of himself. Now that, my friends, is what I call a statement game!

Jacksonville Jaguars
Record:  1-3
Last Game:  Lost 10-27 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Current Starter:  BADGABMAX
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
654	5	1	55.8	5.8	83.7

Breakdown:  Without a doubt, the fact that BADGABMAX made it through three games without an interception is the most shocking thing in the young 2012 season. More shocking than the replacement refs fiasco, more shocking than the Saints 0-4 start…nothing can rival it. Thankfully, we no longer have to question the very laws of the universe. BADGABMAX is now on the board.

Indianapolis Colts
Record:  1-2
Last Game:  Bye
Current Starter:  Andrew Luck
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
846	5	4	53.3	6.9	75.4

Breakdown:  Bye week for the Colts, and a sad one at that. I’ll forego my typical mocking comments to give sincere well wishes to their HC, Chuck Pagano. As you probably know, Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia this past week and could miss the rest of the regular season. While it is certainly sad for the first year coach from a career perspective, the important thing is that his condition is treatable and his outlook is good. Best wishes to Mr. Pagano. Our thoughts and prayers go out to him and his family.

The Favorite

Cleveland Browns
Record:  0-4
Last Game:  Lost 16-23 at Baltimore Ravens
Current Starter:  Brandon Weeden
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
997	3	7	53.9	6.0	60.4

Breakdown:  A game effort against the Ravens, to be sure, but the end result was the same as usual. Another loss, another pathetic Brandon Weeden performance. By the way, for those Browns fans who claim to see “progress” from Weeden, I have to ask what exactly about this performance constitutes progress? Was it the under 50% completions? Was it the mediocre 6.2 Y/A? Was it the zero TD’s? Help me out here, because I’m confused. To date, Weeden has posted a negative DYAR in three of his four starts, with the only exception coming against a putrid Bengals defense. So no, there is nothing about Brandon Weeden’s play that suggests he’ll ever be a decent NFL quarterback. Quite the opposite, actually. Doesn’t mean he can’t randomly improve, but the numbers we have right now are pretty clear.

Games Matt Barkley Might Want to Watch This Week

Amazingly enough, there are no matchups this week between Sweepstakes contenders. There are 14 teams on this list! What are the odds of this happening?!