The Matt Barkley Sweepstakes: Week 7 Update

No, Matt, not #2 anymore.

All right, I give in. Joke’s on me. Just two weeks ago the outcome of this race seemed set in stone, with Geno Smith being the runaway #1 pick and the Cleveland Browns punting their way to an 0-16 record. Now? Well, other than the Browns still unnecessarily punting all the time, I don’t know what to think. On the NFL side, there are a number of teams still very much in the picture, but who the heck knows which college prospect is in that picture! Geno has put together two clunkers in a row, Matt Barkley has yet to perform against a team that isn’t Colorado or some other garbage school, E.J. Manuel is still surrounded by question marks, and the rest of the prospects have quickly fallen by the wayside. At this point it’s feasible that no QB will go in the top 5, though recent draft history suggests that somebody will reach for one of these guys. As for which one, however, your guess is as good as mine.

Let’s see where things stand through seven weeks:

The Prizes (QB’s only)

Third Prize:  E.J. Manuel, Florida State
Stats:  21-31, 229 YDS in 33-20 W over Miami (FL)
Season Stats:  2033 YDS, 14 TD, 4 INT, 71.5%, 9.5 Y/A
Breakdown:  The big news out of Tallahassee is the season ending injury to leading rusher, Chris Thompson. This is obviously bad news for the Seminoles, but it’s exactly the type of showcase opportunity Manuel needs to catapult himself into the discussion as a potential #1 overall type of player. Personally, I think he’s going to nail it.  He’s been better than Barkley in nearly every measurable way and the FSU system is a much better proving ground than the more gimmicky West Virginia one. At Virginia Tech in two weeks and home against Florida in the season finale are where he can make his mark.

Second Prize:  Geno Smith, West Virginia
Stats:  21-32, 143 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT in 14-55 L to Kansas State
Season Stats:  2414 YDS, 26 TD, 2 INT, 74.2%, 8.3 Y/A
Breakdown:  For the second straight week, West Virginia gets hammered, and for the second straight week, Geno is clearly overshadowed by his QB counterpart. Last week it was Seth Doege tossing for 7000 yards (seemingly). This week, it’s new Heisman frontrunner, Collin Klein, doing his best Tim Tebow impersonation. This doesn’t make Geno a bad QB, but it does warrant a drop from the top spot. Man does that Texas game seem like an eternity ago. Before you all bail on Geno, though, let me remind you of one thing. Last October, Robert Griffin tossed 4 INT’s en route to a 1-3 record that month. He’d go on to win his final six games and become the hottest non-Andrew Luck prospect in the draft. Everyone is entitled to a rough patch and that’s probably all that is going on with Geno Smith.

Grand Prize:  Matt Barkley, USC
Stats:  19-20, 298 YDS, 6 TD in 50-6 W over Colorado
Season Stats:  1773 YDS, 22 TD, 6 INT, 65.7%, 8.3 Y/A
Breakdown:  Was Barkley impressive against Colorado? Yes…but I’m not going to lie to you and gush about how all my worries and fears have been satisfied. Just because he blows up against a crappy defense doesn’t mean the Stanford tape, California tape, or Washington tape doesn’t exist. Those games happened and I still have my reservations. That having been said, he’s clearly the most polished passer in the college game right now, flashing consistent accuracy and a strong grip on how to run an offense. What’s really stood out to me over the last few weeks, though, has been his ability to handle adversity. Things tend to be very easy for USC QB’s considering the talent around them, but that hasn’t been the case for Barkley this year. Thanks to early defections and NCAA sanctions, the Trojans are dangerously thin up front and it has forced Barkley to fight through some pretty intense pressure. That’s bad for his college stats, but it’s great for those trying to scout him. Delivering in the face of pressure is a fact of life in the NFL and Barkley’s ability to adjust and perform is actually quite impressive. I’ll be excited to see how he performs against Oregon and Notre Dame in the coming weeks.

Now, onto the NFL side of the race:

Dropping Out

Dallas Cowboys
Record:  3-3
Last Game:  Won 19-14 at Carolina Panthers
Current Starter:  Tony Romo
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1636	8	9	67.9	7.4	84.6

Breakdown:  Here’s a little riddle for you – when does a win not feel like a win? When it’s the Cowboys and they’ve only managed 19 measly points against a putrid Panthers defense! Also when you lose your All-Pro middle linebacker in the process. Kill me now. Again.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Record:  3-3
Last Game:  Won 24-17 at Cincinnati Bengals
Current Starter:  Ben Roethlisberger
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1765	11	3	66.0	7.5	98.6

Breakdown:  The Steelers picked a fantastic year to start their decline, because it looks like everyone else in the AFC chose that route as well. Even with half a roster, they might be able to edge out the Ravens, who are currently on pace to put their entire roster on IR.

If Cleveland hadn’t won, we’d probably be off the list…

Detroit Lions
Record:  2-4
Last Game:  Lost 7-13 at Chicago Bears
Current Starter:  Matthew Stafford
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1756	5	6	62.1	6.7	78.4

Breakdown:  Losing at Chicago is nothing to worry about…unless, of course, you were already two games behind them anyways. Look, we are in serious Madden Curse territory here. Calvin has one lone TD, Stafford is throwing like he had Tommy John surgery a week before the season, and the Lions are dropping games like…well, like the Lions. Unfortunately for them, the schedule doesn’t let up as eight of their final ten games are against teams with winning records. Detroit could have a disaster on their hands.

Miami Dolphins
Record:  3-3
Last Game:  Bye
Current Starter:  Ryan Tannehill
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1454	4	6	59.6	7.3	76.5

Breakdown:  The Dolphins are #10 in the recently updated DVOA rankings. Ryan Tannehill. Miami Dolphins. Number ten. The NFL makes no sense.

St. Louis Rams
Record:  3-4
Last Game:  Lost 20-30 vs. Green Bay Packers
Current Starter:  Sam Bradford
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1592	7	6	59.8	7.3	81.5

Breakdown:  Game effort by the Rams to hang in there against the mighty Aaron Rodgers’, but they just don’t have the talent to beat those types of teams. That means a likely loss this week against New England and an even more likely loss to San Francisco after that. With a couple more breaks, the Rams could be right back in the thick of this thing.

Cincinnati Bengals
Record:  3-4
Last Game:  Lost 17-24 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Current Starter:  Andy Dalton
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1831	13	10	64.2	7.5	87.7

Breakdown:  Here’s something I recently started thinking about – has Andy Dalton turned into the new Carson Palmer? Did the Bengals really trade away Carson only to draft a redheaded version of him? I mean, look at those INT totals! They’re outrageous! There has to be something to this.

By the way, if Dalton can right the ship and throw to the proper team, Cincy could absolutely still make the playoffs. The AFC sucks and nine wins should definitely get the job done. Heck, eight wins might do it. Or…Dalton could throw 30 INT’s and the Bengals could rapidly close the gap between them and the “Favorites” on this list. Their choice.

New Orleans Saints
Record:  2-4
Last Game:  Won 35-28 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current Starter:  Drew Brees
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
2097	18	7	60.8	7.7	96.1

Breakdown:  Regarding my previous conspiracy theory, you might be thinking to yourself, “the Saints barely beat the crappy Bucs so obviously that Jon Landrum guy is a giant moron for his stupid conspiracy theory.” To that I would say, you’re technically right about me being a moron, but you’re not right about the conspiracy theory being stupid. In fact, keeping the game close was a brilliant stroke by Sean Payton. Now, the league will have no reason to suspect Payton’s intervention during the bye week, and the Saints can continue their improbably return to the playoff picture. Genius! Good thing there are smart, intuitive people like me to sniff these things out!

We are bad, right?

Tennessee Titans
Record:  3-4
Last Game:  Won 35-34 at Buffalo Bills
Current Starter:  Jake Locker
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
Dead	Dead	Dead	Dead	Dead	Dead

Breakdown:  My hunch about the Titans seems to be right. Believe me; I’m as surprised as anyone. However, with three wins on the board and with only three sure losses left on the schedule, the Titans are very much back in the playoff picture. Don’t get me wrong, they’re still a bad team, but they’re easily one of the better bad teams out there…if that makes any sense. Also, Chris Johnson woke up from his yearlong slumber. Welcome back, Rip Van Winkle.

Buffalo Bills
Record:  3-4
Last Game:  Lost 34-35 vs. Tennessee Titans
Current Starter:  Ryan Fitzpatrick
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1435	15	9	61.0	6.6	86.1

Breakdown:  I don’t know whether Buffalo’s loss was a good thing or a bad thing. Technically, the Bills would have been in decent position to make the playoffs had they won. Four wins would have tied them with New England for the third most in the AFC, and their remaining schedule affords them seven legit opportunities to win. So yeah, eight or nine wins was kinda in the picture. Problem is, they’re the Buffalo Bills and there’s no such thing as a guaranteed win when you’re the Buffalo Bills. Either way, they’re clearly not interested in garnering a potentially franchise altering draft pick. Long live Ryan Fitzpatrick.

New York Jets
Record:  3-4
Last Game:  Lost 26-29 (OT) at New England Patriots
Current Starter:  Mark Sanchez
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1453	9	7	53.2	6.7	74.6

Breakdown:  Major props to Mark Sanchez, who finally got his completion percentage north of 50%! It only took him seven weeks! Anyways, I don’t know why I bother to list the Jets at all. Like always, they’ll trash their way seven or eight wins and land another mid-first round pick. But hey, I’m sure Mark Sanchez will figure it out next year…

Indianapolis Colts
Record:  3-3
Last Game:  Won 17-13 vs. Cleveland Browns
Current Starter:  Andrew Luck
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1674	7	7	53.6	6.7	72.3

Breakdown:  Look, I’m sure Andrew Luck is eager to impress and prove to everyone he’s worthy of the hype. Based on what I’ve seen, he clearly is. But seriously, didn’t he learn anything at Stanford? Didn’t four years of top notch education do anything for him? Can’t he see that the Colts need some serious help at a whole bunch of positions? Any scenario involving them landing Jarvis Jones, Star Lotulelei, Barkevious Mingo, or multiple picks via trade down would be ideal.

Mildly serious question: Can the Colts actually make the playoffs this year? They have seven highly winnable games left on the schedule and one of the best QB’s in the AFC. Is this crazy? Yeah, you’re probably right, this is crazy. I think weird things sometimes…

The Dark Horses

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record:  2-4
Last Game:  Lost 28-35 vs. New Orleans Saints
Current Starter:  Josh Freeman
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1538	11	5	55.6	8.2	91.2

Breakdown:  Josh Freeman! He’s alive!

This is the best thing that could have happened to the Bucs. Not only is Josh Freeman putting together a nice season and showing he’s the long term solution, but he’s doing so while the team is simultaneously losing! Talk about a win-win! With so many high end defensive players on the board, this is a great year for the Bucs to lose.  Even if they screw up and get six wins, there should still be a guy like Sam Montgomery or Bjoern Werner still on the board when they pick.

Carolina Panthers
Record:  1-5
Last Game:  Lost 14-19 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Current Starter:  Cam Newton
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1387	5	6	58.4	8.0	79.3

Breakdown:  I better be careful with my comments in case Warren Moon is reading. Wouldn’t want to make myself a racist by criticizing Cam Newton!

Seriously though, the Panthers suck. Like, bad. Newton definitely deserves some of the blame, and he’s definitely getting it, but he’s not the one who decided Brandon LaFell would be an acceptable option as the #2 receiver. Marty Hurney built a completely nonsensical NFL team featuring way too many RB’s and far too few receiving threats. Granted, they’d be a perfect fit as a Big 10 team in the 1970’s, but no one in their right mind would want a modern day NFL team to be constructed this way. Not surprisingly, Hurney was fired this past week. Long overdue, in my opinion. Until the roster (and coaching staff) is fixed, Newton is going to carry far too big a burden and the team is going to continue to lose. On the bright side, that will enable them to land a pretty darn good piece for their defense.

Oakland Raiders
Record:  2-4
Last Game:  Won 26-23 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Current Starter:  Carson Palmer
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1732	7	4	61.4	7.2	86.0

Breakdown:  Losing to the Jags was just too big a hill to climb and getting that second win could prove very costly in the long run. Unlike the other teams in this group, the Raiders desperately need a long term QB, making losing an absolute necessity. Unfortunately for them, the teams directly ahead of them will also likely be looking QB, so the Raiders might be left out in the cold. Long ways to go, though.

The Favorites

Note: This is, perhaps, the fiercest and most competitive I’ve ever seen these Sweepstakes get. Cleveland looked like they had the ultimate trump card in the totally incompetent Pat Shurmur, only to be upped by the sudden injury to MJD, which was then upped by the announcement that Brady Quinn would be the full time starter. These guys want it! 

Cleveland Browns
Record:  1-6
Last Game:  Lost 13-17 at Indianapolis Colts
Current Starter:  Brandon Weeden
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1783	9	10	56.6	6.6	72.3

Breakdown:  Shurmur’s decision to punt on fourth-and-short might have been the worst decision of Week 7, but Browns fans should be over-the-moon happy about it. A second win this early in the season would have been crushing to their Sweepstakes chances. Clearly, Pat Shurmur feels bad about how awful a coach he’s been, and he’s trying to leave the Browns with one positive thing (the #1 pick) before getting fired. By my estimation, that would be exactly one more positive thing than any of their previous coaches left behind.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Record:  1-5
Last Game:  Lost 23-26 at Oakland Raiders
Current Starter:  BADGABMAXULTRA
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
906	6	3	55.7	5.7	77.1

Breakdown:  Bold move by the Jags this past week, as MJD goes down for “a significant amount of time” with a foot injury. I don’t think I’m going out on a limb when I speculate that we’ve seen the last of him this season. And really, why would he come back? There’s no upside to him rushing back for a contract he is unhappy with, and there’s no upside to the Jags having him in the lineup when they clearly need to focus on losing. To that end, BADGABMAXULTRA will be back in the lineup next week. Shock. Then again, Chad Henne clearly showed himself more than up to the task of filling BADGABMAXULTRA’s terribly inaccurate shoes.

Kansas City Chiefs
Record:  1-5
Last Game:  Bye
Current Starter:  Brady Quinn
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
212	0	2	60.0	5.3	53.3

Breakdown:  I was all set to promote Jacksonville to the top spot when the Chiefs one-upped the MJD injury by handing the keys to Brady Quinn. Talk about an over-the-top aggressive counter strike! That’s like nuking Europe for being rude to Americans. Ladies and gentlemen, this is how you play the game!

Games Matt Barkley Might Want to Watch This Week

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans – The rare matchup that has both relevance to the Sweepstakes and the playoffs.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets – Wait, this also has simultaneous relevance to the Sweepstakes and playoffs. What is going on in the AFC?

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs have four highly winnable games on their schedule and this might be the most winnable of them all. Major implications to this one.