How Good are the Falcons?

Matt Ryan has played at an elite level, but have the
Falcons as a whole done that?

With their (ugly) prime time win over Dallas last Sunday night, the Atlanta Falcons improved to 8-0. Eight wins, zero losses, the last remaining undefeated team in the NFL. However, despite their unblemished record, questions remain. Is this team that good?

Of course they’re good – no one is really questioning that. You don’t get to 8-0 on sheer luck alone, after all. Atlanta has one of the best WR tandems in recent memory, an MVP candidate at QB, a Hall of Famer at TE, and a collection of solid talent at pretty much every spot. Basically, they’re not the Arizona Cardinals, trashing out completely unexplainable wins with next to no talent. But 8-0 puts them in some pretty elite company, company I’m not sure they necessarily belong in.

Since 1980, a grand total of 15 teams have started their season 8-0. That’s 33 years of football, and only 15 teams have made it to the halfway mark without a defeat. Some of these teams we now look to as historical, legendary squads that transcend the game. They are truly the elite of the elite…and there the Falcons are, right in the middle of them. For perspective, let’s take a closer look at the 15 teams on this list:

	Finished	Playoff Seed	Playoff Finish
2012 Atlanta Falcons	?	?	?
2011 Green Bay Packers	15-1	#1	Lost in Div. Rd.
2009 Indianapolis Colts	14-2	#1	Lost in SB
2009 New Orleans Saints	13-3	#1	Won SB
2008 Tennessee Titans	13-3	#1	Lost in Div. Rd.
2007 New England Patriots	16-0	#1	Lost in SB
2006 Indianapolis Colts	12-4	#3	Won SB
2005 Indianapolis Colts	14-2	#1	Lost in Div. Rd.
2003 Kansas City Chiefs	13-3	#2	Lost in Div. Rd.
1998 Denver Broncos	14-2	#1	Won SB
1991 Washington Redskins	14-2	#1	Won SB
1990 New York Giants	13-3	#2	Won SB
1990 San Francisco 49ers	14-2	#1	Lost in Conf. Champ.
1985 Chicago Bears	15-1	#1	Won SB
1984 Miami Dolphins	14-2	#1	Lost in SB

Of note:

- 6 of 14 teams won the Super Bowl.
- 9 of 14 teams made the Super Bowl.
- 10 of 14 teams won at least one playoff game.
- 11 of 14 teams secured the #1 seed.
- 13 of 14 teams won at least 13 games and secured a first round bye.

Clearly, the Falcons have a lot to live up to here. Nearly half of these teams eventually hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, and well over half at least played for that opportunity. Are the Falcons as good as those teams? Can they join that group? To get an idea of where they rank on this list, let’s compare their DVOA ranking to that of the other teams on the list:

Note: DVOA information only goes back to 1991, thus we cannot compare the Falcons to any team prior to that season.

	Off. DVOA	Def. DVOA	Total DVOA	DVOA Rank
2012 Atlanta Falcons	10.2%	-1.8%	13.2%	9th
2011 Green Bay Packers	33.8%	8.6%	27.0%	1st
2009 Indianapolis Colts	16.8%	-0.8%	16.5%	8th
2009 New Orleans Saints	24.3%	-0.4%	21.3%	6th
2008 Tennessee Titans	4.0%	-18.6%	23.8%	5th
2007 New England Patriots	43.5%	-5.8%	52.9%	1st
2006 Indianapolis Colts	28.5%	8.5%	16.3%	7th
2005 Indianapolis Colts	24.5%	-10.2%	32.1%	1st
2003 Kansas City Chiefs	33.4%	9.4%	30.3%	1st
1998 Denver Broncos	34.5%	4.3%	32.6%	1st
1991 Washington Redskins	27.2%	-21.1%	56.9%	1st

For those not buying the ‘dominating Falcons’ line, this is a fairly telling chart. The 2012 Falcons are clearly outliers on this list, ranking last in Total DVOA and DVOA Rank. Granted, they were fairly comparable to two AFC Champion Colts teams – one of which actually won the Super Bowl – but you go ahead and let me know when in-his-prime Peyton Manning is quarterbacking the Falcons, OK? Other than that, the Falcons are clearly inferior to everybody else on this list. They are not a dominating team and this is not a group they truly belong in.

Nevertheless, the media seems intent on jamming the Falcons record down our throats. They are at the top of every Power Ranking based solely on their record, as if they represent the same type of quality these other 8-0 teams had. As I’ve shown, that’s not the case, but we don’t even need these charts to determine that.  In judging the Falcons independently of historical 8-0 teams, it’s easy to poke holes in their Super Bowl resumé.

For starters, their previously mentioned DVOA is not necessarily indicative of a consensus top team in the NFL. The offense, which is supposedly the strength of the team, ranks eighth, but lags noticeably behind that of the top five ranked offenses. Atlanta ranks 16^th in adjusted sack rate, 21^st in adjusted line yards, and dead last in power success, all of which are contributing heavily to their lower than expected ranking. For a team with the type of weapons they have, that type of production is certainly disappointing. Then there’s the matter of their surprisingly low ninth place ranking in total DVOA, a number that places them just sixth in the NFC. It would be one thing if Atlanta was neck and neck with several of those rival teams, but the fact is that the DVOA of the fifth place NFC team, the Giants, is more than double their 13.2% DVOA.

Not interested in Football Outsiders stats? Fine, how about the Pro-Football-Reference.com SRS (Simple Rating System) statistic, which takes into account a team’s quality and strength of schedule and grades it against the league average, boiling their success (or lack thereof) down to a single number? Thankfully for the Falcons, SRS sheds a far kinder light on them...instead of being the sixth best NFC team, they’re the fifth best. And in case you were wondering, their Pythagorean record, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com, is 5.9-2.1. Again, the Falcons win total far exceeds how they’ve actually played.

The reality of the Falcons is that they’re a good team that has faced an incredibly easy schedule and has gotten very lucky. Their combined opponent record is currently 24-41 and they’ve only defeated one team with a winning record. Additionally, they’ve won five of those games by a TD or less. One of those was due to Ron Rivera’s stupidity, one was helped greatly by a Robert Griffin concussion, and another came via a classic Carson Palmer pick-six.

What I’m not saying is that the Falcons are a bad team. Their passing offense is strong, their defense is solid, and besides, a ninth place ranking in DVOA isn’t anything to sneeze about. This is, without a doubt, a top ten team in the league. But a Super Bowl team, I’m not so sure.  Most of the 8-0 teams we discussed earlier were clearly class-of-the-league type teams, some even historically great teams. The Falcons are neither, and no one should be under the impression that they are.

All I’m asking is that you go beyond the record and take a moment to think for yourselves. Thus far, ESPN has shown an inability to do that. They’re enamored with record no matter how skewed it may be. Well guess what, come playoff time, they’ll probably be *shocked* when a 14 win Falcons team takes a dive in the divisional round.

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The Rex Grossman Zone
Any QB with a QB Rating under 39.6
Present Membership: Weeden (5.1), Skelton (6.2), Cutler (28.2), Ponder (35.5), BADGABMAXULTRA (37.7), Cassel (38.1), Wilson (38.7), Tannehill (39.0), Bradford (39.2)

Christian Ponder (11-22, 63 YDS, 1 INT, 37.3 QB Rating) – The fact that it was Ponder, and not Weeden or BADGABMAXULTRA, who became the first two time member of the Grossman Zone is telling. After such a strong start, he’s failed to reach 100 yards passing in two of his last three games, and you have to imagine Minnesota is feeling antsy about the future of their first round guy.

The ‘Best Defensive Lineman on the Board’ Sweepstakes

We’re taking a break from the full Sweepstakes column because, quite frankly, this race has become stale. Barkley and Geno have been poisoning themselves week after week while the Chiefs and Jaguars have been doing the same to their fan bases. The only interesting thing left to talk about is what those two QB needy teams will do in the draft. At this point, it would seem foolish to reach for any of the available QB’s. However, it would also seem foolish to not address the position. A lot of scenarios are in play here…a massive reach, a couple trade downs, a run on second and third round QB’s; basically anything could happen given the current landscape. We’ll keep an eye on this as things develop. For now, however, it just looks like the top of the board is full of pass rushers and space clogging 300 pounders.

Power Rankings

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) – I know I’m going to regret this almost immediately, but I just can’t keep the Bucs out given the way they’ve been playing. Granted they haven’t necessarily beaten the best the league has to offer, but the re-emergence of Josh Freeman and the explosion of Doug Martin has certainly made the Bucs a legitimately formidable offense. If their defense can continue to improve then the Bucs could find themselves sneaking into that sixth playoff spot in the NFC.

9. Denver Broncos (5-3) – The Broncos should be favored in each of their final eight games and Peyton Manning doesn’t often lose when he’s the favorite. Or ever, for that matter.

8. Atlanta Falcons (8-0) –I’m guessing I wouldn’t be very popular in Atlanta right about now…

7. New England Patriots (5-3) – Will be heavy favorites in their next four games before facing Houston and San Francisco in consecutive weeks. Until then, concerns from their three early losses are admissible.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) – Despite the close score, Pittsburgh thoroughly outplayed the Giants despite having to fly in the morning of game day. As is usually the case with the Steelers, they’re playing better and better as the season goes on. In this case, the improvement can be directly tied to OC Todd Haley. His smarter and more modern schemes have been the main catalyst in overcoming significant injuries on the offensive line and in the running game. Currently, the Steelers have a three game streak of 100+ yard rushers and Big Ben’s sack rate is a full 3% below his career average. Not a coincidence, folks.

5. Green Bay Packers (6-3) – The Packers get a well timed bye week to try and get their players healthy before a tough two game road stretch at Detroit and at the Giants.

4. San Francisco 49ers (6-2) – The ‘Niners had a bye week to help regulate Jim Harbaugh’s blood pressure. Rams this week then a huge home game against the Bears next week.

3. New York Giants (6-3) –‘Bad Eli’ showed up against Pittsburgh, a phenomenon Giants fans are very familiar with. He’ll probably break the yardage record against the Bengals as a confusing follow-up. 

2. Houston Texans (7-1) – They move up one in light of the Giants poor performance, but the real test will be Sunday night when they play at Chicago. We all remember the Texans’ last prime time game against Green Bay. A repeat of that would cast serious doubt on their legitimacy as a Super Bowl contender.

1. Chicago Bears (7-1) – Two more defense/special teams scores last Sunday. Seriously, I’ve run out of things to say about this. It’s just too incredible for words.