The Matt Barkley Sweepstakes - Week 8 Update

What's that? You were wondering why the Chiefs
are the favorites? Well...

If it weren’t for the NFL’s penchant for stupidly reaching for unworthy QB’s in the draft, I’d drop all these clowns. It just doesn’t seem like these guys are top overall pick type players, even though I happen to like them all a great deal. However, with two of my three “Favorites” needing a QB, you can bet at least one of these guys gets his name called at or very near the top of the draft. On the plus side, at least there’s drama in the draft his year!

Let’s see where things stand through seven weeks:

The Prizes (QB’s only)

Third Prize:  E.J. Manuel, Florida State
Stats:  8-16, 282 YDS, 2 TD in 48-7 W over Duke
Season Stats:  2315 YDS, 16 TD, 4 INT, 70.0%, 10.1 Y/A
Breakdown:  Manuel has remained a fairly under-the-radar prospect, with the majority of scouting sites ranking him as a second round prospect at best. That’s fine, I guess, but while Geno Smith and Matt Barkley have been putting up stinkers and “meh” performances over the past few weeks, the E.J. Manuel train has been rolling right on down the tracks. His efficiency has not only improved in his senior year, it’s off-the-charts crazy! If not for a series of blowouts and Jimbo Fisher’s balanced offensive attack, Manuel’s numbers would easily put him at or near the head of every Heisman list. More and more, I’m thinking Manuel is the best bet to be the top QB taken in the draft.

Second Prize:  Geno Smith, West Virginia
Stats:  Bye
Season Stats:  2414 YDS, 26 TD, 2 INT, 74.2%, 8.3 Y/A
Breakdown:  A much needed bye for Geno and his reeling Mountaineers. We’ll see if they can bounce back against a stingy TCU defense this coming Saturday. If not, Geno might see his star fall even further.

Grand Prize:  Matt Barkley, USC
Stats:  31-49, 493 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT in 36-39 L to Arizona
Season Stats:  2266 YDS, 25 TD, 8 INT, 65.3%, 8.7 Y/A
Breakdown:  Another up-and-down performance from Barkley, though in this particular case I feel he’s being unjustly vilified. One of his INT’s came off a tipped pass put right in the hands of a WR, and it’s certainly not Barkley’s fault that USC RB’s can’t stop putting the ball on the ground. Besides, it’s not like he had anything to do with the 26 points the USC defense allowed in the second half, especially since Barkley was turnover free from the mid-2nd quarter onward. I watched this game and thought he performed exceptionally well. His deep ball has certainly improved and his accuracy and poise are evident, but he’s got to clean up the mistakes and make better decisions. Still, nobody else has jumped up and taken the bull by the horns in this race, so it’s still Barkley’s game to lose.

Now, onto the NFL side of the race:

Dropping Out

Detroit Lions
Record:  3-4
Last Game:  Won 28-24 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Current Starter:  Matthew Stafford
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
2108	8	7	63.3	6.7	82.1

Breakdown:  Their stay on this list always seemed temporary, but it was certainly less temporary than I could have ever imagined. It’s time now, though. For the first time this season, Stafford looked like last year’s Matt Stafford, and that is certainly no way to hang around in the Sweepstakes. Adios, Detroit.

Miami Dolphins
Record:  4-3
Last Game:  Won 30-9 at New York Jets
Current Starter:  Ryan Tannehill
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1472	4	6	59.1	7.3	75.8

Breakdown:  The Miami Dolphins are officially off the list after only eight weeks. What were the odds on that? Even crazier, the Dolphins kinda look like a playoff team in the crappy AFC. I guess I’ll believe that when I see it, but it’s an undeniable reality as long as they continue to get decent QB play, whether from Tannehill or Matt Moore.

Indianapolis Colts
Record:  4-3
Last Game:  Won 19-13 at Tennessee Titans
Current Starter:  Andrew Luck
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1971	8	8	55.6	6.8	74.6

Breakdown:  Do I think the Colts are a good team? Absolutely not. In fact, I still think they’re bad. Just look at their roster! But as we should all know by now, there’s always room for at least one ‘good bad team’ in the NFL. This year, it looks like the Colts and Dolphins are those teams. Thank God those two teams play this week…(not really, there’s no way you could make me watch that game)

Courtesy Listing

St. Louis Rams
Record:  3-5
Last Game:  Lost 7-45 vs. New England Patriots
Current Starter:  Sam Bradford
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1797	8	7	61.4	7.2	82.4

Breakdown:  Well, London didn’t necessarily work out so well for the Rams. Then again, not much has worked out for them over the past decade, has it? Still, despite getting walloped by the Pats, I’m no less excited about the Rams Sweepstakes prospects than I was before. The two game handicap seems like a bridge too far at this moment, especially with the Jets, Cards, Bills, and Bucs still left to play.

Cincinnati Bengals
Record:  3-4
Last Game:  Bye
Current Starter:  Andy Dalton
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1831	13	10	64.2	7.5	87.7

Breakdown:  Basically rinse and repeat what I said about the Rams. Two game handicap, the presence of some actual quality players, and several potential wins left on the board (including KC!) make the Bengals a fraudulent contender.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record:  3-4
Last Game:  Won 36-17 at Minnesota Vikings
Current Starter:  Josh Freeman
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1800	14	5	55.2	8.1	93.3

Breakdown:  Just a few short weeks ago, the Bucs were legit contenders for the Sweepstakes thanks to Josh Freeman and their predictably awful defense. What happened?  Josh Freeman built a time machine and went back to 2010, Doug Martin stopped looking like Ray Rice and started playing like Ray Rice, and Gerald McCoy turned into the second coming of Warren Sapp, that’s what happened! Suddenly, the Bucs are once again an exciting young team on the fringes of playoff contention. With Oakland, San Diego, and Carolina coming up, my guess is we’ll have seen the last of Tampa Bay on this list.

The two game handicap…

Tennessee Titans
Record:  3-5
Last Game:  Lost 13-19 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Current Starter:  Jake Locker
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
Dead	Dead	Dead	Dead	Dead	Dead

Breakdown:  What a stupid loss for the Titans. A win – which they easily should have had – would have brought them all the way back from their horrific 1-4 start and would have given them a leg up one of those wild card spots. Instead, they blow a fourth quarter lead and lose despite moving the ball well and committing zero penalties. But hey, Matt Hasselbeck is just a winner, isn’t he? Nevertheless, the Titans incompetence isn’t nearly on par with the current Sweepstakes leaders. They’ll need a monumental collapse to get back in this, including losing not one, but two games against the Jaguars. Which is to say, this is impossible.

Buffalo Bills
Record:  3-4
Last Game:  Bye
Current Starter:  Ryan Fitzpatrick
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1435	15	9	61.0	6.6	86.1

Breakdown:  If I were Bills management, I would have spent the bye week infecting Fred Jackson’s and C.J. Spiller’s lockers and their contents with mono. Gotta knock them out for awhile without doing long term harm to their careers.

New York Jets
Record:  3-5
Last Game:  Lost 9-30 vs. Miami Dolphins
Current Starter:  Mark Sanchez
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1736	10	8	52.9	6.4	72.8

Breakdown:  Congrats to Mark Sanchez, who somehow managed to lower his completion percentage, Y/A, and QB Rating despite already being exceptionally low in all three categories. Congratulations, sir! Still, the Jets are in the same boat as a lot of teams. Three wins already on the board and the means to trash out a few more. Not a great place to be.

Oakland Raiders
Record:  3-4
Last Game:  Won 26-16 at Kansas City Chiefs
Current Starter:  Carson Palmer
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1941	9	5	60.2	7.2	85.7

Breakdown:  Facing the Jaguars and Chiefs in consecutive weeks is a death sentence in this sort of contest. It’s just not fair, really. Did I mention they still have New Orleans, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Kansas City, and Carolina left to go?

The Dark Horses

New Orleans Saints
Record:  2-5
Last Game:  Lost 14-34 at Denver Broncos
Current Starter:  Drew Brees
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
2310	20	8	59.7	7.3	93.0

Breakdown:  So much for my elaborate conspiracy theory. The Saints just flat out suck, no way around it. As crazy as it sounds, they have to be taken seriously in this contest.

Cleveland Browns
Record:  2-6
Last Game:  Won 7-6 vs. San Diego Chargers
Current Starter:  Brandon Weeden
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1912	9	10	55.2	6.4	70.8

Breakdown:  In case you needed any more proof that God hates Cleveland, I present to you Sunday’s win over the Chargers. In any normal day, the Chargers probably would have lit up the Browns horrendous pass defense en route to an easy win. But no, the winds had to be howling and near freezing rain had to be falling, essentially giving the game to Cleveland since they possessed the superior running back. On the bright side, Browns fans, it looks like the top five or six prospects in this draft are all approximately worth the same.

The Favorites

Carolina Panthers
Record:  1-6
Last Game:  Lost 22-23 at Chicago Bears
Current Starter:  Cam Newton
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1701	5	8	57.1	8.0	75.2

Breakdown:  OK, things are officially getting fishy in Carolina. I’m not calling them out for tanking or anything, but if they were tanking they’d be doing a darn good job of it. Seriously though, they’re practically inventing new and innovative ways to lose football games. The fourth-and-one against Atlanta, the defensive TD this week…being a Panthers fan right now seems a lot like being a Cowboys fan, except without any expectations of winning. I’ll still be surprised if Carolina ends up with the top pick, but their accomplishments up to this point absolutely must be recognized.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Record:  1-6
Last Game:  Lost 15-24 at Green Bay Packers
Current Starter:  BADGABMAXULTRA
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
1209	7	3	55.6	5.8	78.0

Breakdown:  BADGABMAXULTRA had what very well might have been his best game ever…and the Jags still only scored 15 points en route to another loss. They’ve still got six winnable games left, but even those are against teams either much higher up on this list or just taken off this list. They’ll have a tough time getting past two wins.

Kansas City Chiefs
Record:  1-6
Last Game:  Lost 16-26 vs. Oakland Raiders
Current Starter:  Brady Quinn
Season Stats:

YDS	TD	INT	COMP%	Y/A	RATING
213	0	3	59.1	4.8	43.1

Breakdown:  I made the comment last week that Sunday’s game against Oakland was “perhaps their most winnable game left.” They lost. By double digits. Granted, I miscalculated how bad the Panthers were, which makes the Chiefs Week 13 home tilt against them their most winnable game, but you get the point. Basically, I can’t come up with a scenario involving the Chiefs getting another win this year. Not a single one. They’re just so awful in every way imaginable. Romeo Crennel, Brady Quinn starting, the defense, it’s just all so unbelievably terrible.

Games Matt Barkley Might Want to Watch This Week

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers – Since the Chargers are playing poorly, I guess the Chiefs technically have a chance.

Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins – Winnable game for the Panthers, though I’m sure they’ll find some crazy way to lose. Also, if the ‘Skins do manage to lose, then they’re right back in contention.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Oakland Raiders – Winner is out of the Sweepstakes.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints – We knew this game would be relevant…just not for this reason.