What the Lottery Winners Actually Won

Congrats, Monty! What did you really win?

My first thought was to write an NBA draft lottery “Winners and Losers” piece, but before I got too far into it I realized that 1.) it’s been five full days since the draft lottery and everyone – and I do mean LITERALLY everyone – has written one, and 2.) I won’t be breaking any ground in telling you who won and who lost. Yes, the New Orleans Hornets are winners. Yes, the Charlotte Bobcats are losers (in every way possible). And yes, Anthony Davis can stop anxiously pulling out his uni-brow now that he knows he won’t be a member of those Bobcats. We all know this, and it would be a tremendous waste of your time to read another of these columns.

What wouldn’t be wasteful, and what has been largely ignored, is proper perspective. Columnists and draft experts have spent countless hours telling us who the winners and losers are, but what they haven’t told us is what a winner and a loser looks like. How disastrous, exactly, was Charlotte’s fall from #1 to #2? How monumental was New Orleans’ rise from #4 to #1? These questions can’t truly be answered until years down the road, but a historical perspective of what the draft yields can certainly give us a good idea of what to expect. To that end, I’ve slowly pieced together a spread sheet detailing every draft pick since 1985. This spreadsheet compiles totals and averages for how many years a player played, how many games he played, how many All-Star games he made, how many All-NBA teams he was selected to, how many minutes/points/rebounds/assists he averaged per game, his career Player Efficiency Rating, and how many Estimated Wins Added he brought to his team, both total and per season.

Keep in mind, as detailed as this spreadsheet sounds, it does not totally depict how successful or unsuccessful a particular player was. There are things in basketball that cannot be quantified, and that must always be remembered. It also doesn’t say, definitely, what each team WILL get with their picks. Some drafts are stronger than others, and that is obviously a factor. However, 27 drafts worth of statistical data is more than enough to give us a really good insight into the NBA draft. By examining that data, we can get an idea of what each team truly won or lost in the draft lottery, and what they can expect to get from their draft pick.

#1 Overall Pick – New Orleans Hornets

Averages for #1 Pick (All-Star and All-NBA are totals for all 27 players):

Years	Games	All-Star	All-NBA	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	PER	EWA	EWA/sea
10.1	640.1	107	82	33.0	17.3	7.8	3.0	19.3	66.4	6.5

Based on the above numbers, the average #1 overall pick looks like:

In between Larry Johnson and Elton Brand

Let me start by saying that I would be SHOCKED if Anthony Davis failed to greatly exceed both LJ and Brand. In my mind, and in many others, Davis is the best big man prospect since Tim Duncan. Honestly, I’m already writing his HOF speech, he’s so good. However, it is worth noting that the #1 overall pick doesn’t produce franchise changing players nearly as often as people think. Just 13 of the last 27 top picks have contributed a minimum of 7 EWA/season, a group that includes the aforementioned LJ and Brand. On the flip side, the recent track record of top picks is pretty darn good. The last ten #1 overall picks, since 2002, have been Yao Ming, Lebron James, Dwight Howard, Andrew Bogut, Andrea Bargnani, Greg Oden, Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin, John Wall, and Kyrie Irving. That’s a pretty good list, and shy of injury (Oden, sorta Bogut), Davis looks like he’ll continue the recent string of success. Considering the massive impact a many of those players have had on their franchise, I’d say New Orleans should expect something pretty special from their pick.

#2 Overall Pick – Charlotte Bobcats

Averages for #2 Pick (All-Star and All-NBA are totals for all 27 players):

Years	Games	All-Star	All-NBA	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	PER	EWA	EWA/sea
9.4	633.1	36	23	28.2	12.4	5.8	2.4	16.1	47.0	5.0

Based on the above numbers, the average #2 overall pick looks like:

Armen Gilliam

There’s no way to sugarcoat this one, Bobcats fans. The drop-off from #1 to #2 is precipitous; too precipitous to find any sort of silver lining. Even if you like Bradley Beal or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, history tells us they will most likely be nothing more than valuable starters. That’s obviously nothing to sneeze at, but Charlotte clearly needs much, MUCH more than that. Just look at the drop-off in All-Star games (107 to 36) and All-NBA teams (82 to 23)! Those numbers are even more stark when you consider that Jason Kidd, Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning, and Kevin Durant account for 29 of the 36 All-Star games and 20 of the 26 All-NBA teams. Another way to put it…not much of what Charlotte really needs.

Worth noting: The last four #2 picks have been Derrick Williams, Evan Turner, Hasheem Thabeet, and Michael Beasley. Not encouraging.

#3 Overall Pick – Washington Wizards

Averages for #3 Pick (All-Star and All-NBA are totals for all 27 players):

Years	Games	All-Star	All-NBA	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	PER	EWA	EWA/sea
9.0	567.2	38	23	28.6	13.4	4.9	2.9	15.9	42.4	4.7

Based on the above numbers, the average #3 overall pick looks like:

Charles Smith

It doesn’t appear as if the Wizards missed out on anything spectacular by dropping from #2 to #3, as the two picks have been pretty much identical over the last 27 years. Similar career arcs, similar stats, similar PER’s, and similar value added. However, the #3 pick has produced twice as many multiple All-Star players (10) as the #2 pick (5). What that means, I’m not sure. Just interesting to note.

Wizards fans shouldn’t be concerned by dropping from the #2 pick, as they’ll still get either Beal or MKG. It certainly appears as if the two players are on the same tier, and history certainly gives Washington every reason to expect their pick to be a solid starter, if not more.

#4 Overall Pick – Cleveland Cavaliers

Averages for #4 Pick (All-Star and All-NBA are totals for all 27 players):

Years	Games	All-Star	All-NBA	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	PER	EWA	EWA/sea
9.9	647.5	35	15	29.9	13.6	5.3	3.0	15.9	45.6	4.6

Based on the above numbers, the average #4 overall pick looks like:

Xavier McDaniel or Mike Conley

I initially designated Cleveland as a “loser” on the podcast after they dropped out of the top 3, but the historical numbers suggest I might have jumped the gun on that. No, it doesn’t look like there are a lot of great options after Beal or MKG, but don’t forget that neither Chris Paul nor Russell Westbrook were considered premium prospects at the time, either. So take heart, Cleveland fans, because there is usually a pretty solid starter at #4 no matter how the draft looks.

#5 Overall Pick – Sacramento Kings

Averages for #5 Pick (All-Star and All-NBA are totals for all 27 players):

Years	Games	All-Star	All-NBA	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	PER	EWA	EWA/sea
9.8	644.3	58	34	28.9	13.3	5.1	2.9	15.6	48.5	5.0

Based on the above numbers, the average #5 overall pick looks like:

Devin Harris

It sounds crazy, but in many ways, the #5 overall pick has been more productive than #2, #3, and #4, producing significantly more All-Star games and more All-NBA teams than any of those picks. Weird, huh? But that’ll happen when the list of #5 picks includes superstars like Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Dwyane Wade, Scottie Pippen, Mitch Richmond, Vince Carter, and Kevin Love. And if Ricky Rubio and DeMarcus Cousins continue their upward ascent, the list will only get better. The Kings didn’t move up on lottery night, but they’re actually sitting just fine. Of course, we all know they’re going to take Andre Drummond and screw everything up…so there’s that.

#6 Overall Pick – Portland Trail Blazers (via Brooklyn Nets)

Averages for #6 Pick (All-Star and All-NBA are totals for all 27 players):

Years	Games	All-Star	All-NBA	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	PER	EWA	EWA/sea
7.6	467.7	10	2	24.7	9.8	4.2	1.8	13.1	21.4	2.8

Based on the above numbers, the average #6 overall pick looks like:

Calbert Cheaney or a less good Josh Childress…if that makes any sense

This is the point at which everything falls off a cliff. Comparing the #6 pick to the #5 pick, the average #6 pick averages 2.2 less years, nearly 200 less games played, and produce more than 50% less wins over the course of their career. Instead of drafting an above average starter who will likely be good enough to make one, maybe two, All-Star games in their career, the Blazers will be picking someone who can hopefully be a solid seventh or eighth guy.

This brings up an obvious question, then; were the Nets smart to make the Gerald Wallace trade? The initial answer was a resounding no, but perhaps we need to revisit this. The Nets were smart enough to protect themselves from losing the top three picks, perhaps the only picks of any tangible value. While we’ve already seen that the #4 and #5 picks hold as much historical value as #2 and #3, this year’s draft board might make this year an exception. Even if that isn’t the case, Wallace’s career PER of 17.4 and EWA/season of 5.0 make him clearly superior to the average #4 or #5 pick. Of course, if the Nets can’t resign Wallace, then this is a moot point. But assuming they do, as it appears likely, it’s certainly worth a debate, especially in hindsight. The #6 pick is a historically unproductive pick, whereas Wallace is a proven commodity. Would you rather have Wallace, or would you rather take the risk at #6 knowing that your odds of landing a franchise player are low?

#7 Overall Pick – Golden St. Warriors

Averages for #7 Pick (All-Star and All-NBA are totals for all 27 players):

Years	Games	All-Star	All-NBA	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	PER	EWA	EWA/sea
8.5	530.7	12	9	27.3	11.6	4.6	2.8	14.8	29.7	3.5

Based on the above numbers, the average #7 overall pick looks like:

Walt Williams, or a less good Jason Williams

The Warriors worked hard to hang onto this pick…so what did they actually accomplish? Was trading for an injury prone center and a pile of bad contracts worth the #7 pick? Umm, no. #7 has better averages than #6, but that’s mostly buoyed by Chris Mullin and Kevin Johnson, who combine to account for all 9 All-NBA teams. Other than that, there’s a lot of busts, a handful of good starters, and a bunch of role players. Of note: Greg Monroe, Stephen Curry, and Eric Gordon were all recent #7 overall picks. Then again, so were Bismack Biyombo and Corey Brewer…

#8 Overall Pick – Toronto Raptors

Averages for #8 Pick (All-Star and All-NBA are totals for all 27 players):

Years	Games	All-Star	All-NBA	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	PER	EWA	EWA/sea
8.3	510.1	7	3	23.6	9.6	4.0	2.0	13.4	26.5	3.2

Based on the above numbers, the average #8 overall pick looks like:

Channing Frye

I think the Channing Frye thing tells everything you need to know about the #8 overall pick. If not, then consider that Detlef Schrempf, Vin Baker, and Andre Miller are the three best #8 overall picks since 1985. The Raptors shouldn’t be expecting anything more than an above average role player.

#9 Overall Pick – Detroit Pistons

Averages for #9 Pick (All-Star and All-NBA are totals for all 27 players):

Years	Games	All-Star	All-NBA	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	PER	EWA	EWA/sea
8.7	545	30	26	24.3	10.3	5.0	1.8	14.7	37.4	4.3

Based on the above numbers, the average #9 overall pick looks like:

D.J. Augustin

There’s a serious uptick in production here when compared with the #9 pick. That can almost entirely be attributed to an outstanding three year stretch from 1997 to 1999 that saw Tracy McGrady, Dirk Nowitzki, and Shawn Marion drafted #9 overall in successive years. That’s not all, however. Amare Stoudemire, Andre Iguodala, and Joakim Noah were also #9 overall picks, giving hope to Pistons fans everywhere. Beware, however, as Patrick O’Bryant’s, Ike Diogu’s, and Mike Sweetney’s are much more common  than the Nowitzki’s and Marion’s. Very boom or bust pick.

#10 Overall Pick – New Orleans Hornets

Averages for #10 Pick (All-Star and All-NBA are totals for all 27 players):

Years	Games	All-Star	All-NBA	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	PER	EWA	EWA/sea
9.3	578.7	23	7	25.5	10.7	4.4	2.4	14.8	37.2	4.0

Based on the above numbers, the average #10 overall pick looks like:

Paul George, if George never EVER got one iota better than  he is right now

Remarkably similar in production to the #9 overall pick, though a quick scan through the list of past #10 picks isn’t anywhere near as glamorous. Horace Grant and Eddie Jones both contributed over 100 EWA in their respective careers (more than 7.0 per season each), though I would hardly call either player a star. Still, #10 has produced a number of near star quality players like Brandon Jennings, Brook Lopez, Jason Terry, Caron Butler, and Joe Johnson (as well as ACTUAL star, Paul Pierce), so New Orleans has a reasonable shot to get some quality here.

It is worth considering, at this point, why the #9 and #10 picks have been so much more productive than #6-#8. If we looked closer, I feel confident we’d find that this is the exact range where teams felt comfortable with potential reward over risk. Amare Stoudemire, Tracy McGrady, Dirk Nowitzki, Brandon Jennings, and even Andre Iguodala are all good examples of that. Also, it seems to be the area of the lottery where major prospects “free fall” to. For example, Paul Pierce and Joakim Noah were both expected to be much higher picks, but inexplicably fell on draft day. The same can be said of Joe Johnson, Caron Butler, and others. Then again, maybe it’s just sheer luck.

#11 Overall Pick – Portland Trail Blazers

Averages for #11 Pick (All-Star and All-NBA are totals for all 27 players):

Years	Games	All-Star	All-NBA	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	PER	EWA	EWA/sea
7.7	453.1	10	3	20.7	8.1	3.7	1.6	13.6	26.5	3.4

Based on the above numbers, the average #11 overall pick looks like:

J.J. Redick…not just last year, but his whole career…which has been trashy

After a brief respite thanks to the surprisingly productive ninth and tenth picks, we’re back to crap. Very few All-Star caliber players taken in this range, and shy of Reggie Miller, there isn’t anyone capable of turning around a franchise. If Portland can land one good starter and a solid role player with their two picks, they will have done better than most.

#12 Overall Pick – Milwaukee Bucks

Averages for #12 Pick (All-Star and All-NBA are totals for all 27 players):

Years	Games	All-Star	All-NBA	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	PER	EWA	EWA/sea
7.1	410.1	1	0	19.3	6.9	3.5	1.6	11.9	17.0	2.4

Based on the above numbers, the average #12 overall pick looks like:

Vitaly Potapenko

Just 12 of 27 players averaged at least 20 MPG in their careers, and just two #12 overall picks from 2000-2006 are still in the league…and that counts Vlad Radmanovic! So no, it’s not safe to assume Milwaukee will get anything out of this pick. Welcome to the NBA Draft!

#13 Overall Pick – Phoenix Suns

Averages for #13 Pick (All-Star and All-NBA are totals for all 27 players):

Years	Games	All-Star	All-NBA	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	PER	EWA	EWA/sea
8.0	504.1	29	28	22.8	9.8	4.0	1.8	14.1	33.8	4.2

Based on the above numbers, the average #13 overall pick looks like:

Ed Davis

The numbers for the #13 overall pick look pretty good, but they are incredibly deceiving. Karl Malone and Kobe Bryant account for 28 of the 29 All-Star games and all 28 All-NBA teams. Take them out of the equation and you have a combined 13.3 PER and an average of just 2.4 EWA/season. In other words, the #13 pick is about as infertile as the previous pick. Looking at names like Sean May, Julian Wright, Sebastian Telfair, Marcus Banks, and others of that ilk, I can see why. Like Milwaukee, Phoenix will be lucky to get a rotation player.

#14 Overall Pick – Houston Rockets

Averages for #14 Pick (All-Star and All-NBA are totals for all 27 players):

Years	Games	All-Star	All-NBA	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	PER	EWA	EWA/sea
6.0	347.2	11	6	20.5	8.4	3.2	1.7	12.3	17.8	2.9

Based on the above numbers, the average #13 overall pick looks like:

Fred Jones

Even with three multiple All-Stars helping the averages (Dan Majerle, Tim Hardaway, Peja Stojakovic), the #14 overall pick is incredible trash. Tons and tons of busts. Good luck, Houston. Ironically, Houston has had the past two #14 picks in Patrick Patterson and Marcus Morris, and they’ve gotten very little out of them.

And there you have it! This is what the lottery teams can actually expect from their picks. Again, the averages of 27 previous players do NOT set in stone what this current crop of rookies will do, but there is a reason why the averages are what they are. It’s important to set expectations properly early on, because we’re not far off from hearing how every single draft pick is a future All-Star. The truth is that this draft will probably produce one star, two other All-Stars, and a pile or role players and washouts. To expect anything more is just foolish.