Peyton vs. Eli -- Is This Really Necessary?

"You know I'll always be a lot better than you, right?"

Look, I love a good debate as much as anyone, especially when it’s a sports debate. After all, what red-blooded American doesn’t love to sit around and argue the merits of his team over anybody else’s team? And what real sports fan doesn’t live to espouse the value of his favorite player over every other player? That’s what makes it fun! Heck, I went and started a sports blog just so I could waste countless hours of my life doing that very same thing! But debate for the sake of debate is not necessarily a good thing. In fact, it can be downright stupid.

The most recent such example is the current Manning vs. Manning debate. Thanks to another surprising Super Bowl run by the Giants, sports writers/fans across the nation have unanimously decided to give Eli all the credit, as if he also managed to play all four defensive line positions simultaneously while also mind-controlling San Francisco’s secondary into tackling each prior to bringing in one of his woefully thrown passes. (You can see why this logic would ring true with America…)But wait, the madness doesn’t stop there. It gets worse! With the prospect of Eli adding a second championship to his collection, esteemed sports writers such as Michael Wilbon and Rick Reilly, along with millions of others, have hypothesized that perhaps, just perhaps, Eli is actually the better Manning.

Please…

(Shaking my head incredulously and rolling my eyes…)

Thing is – (here’s my best Phil Simms impression) – in order for a debate to be a debate, there actually needs to be a debate. Translation: This is the most ridiculous pile of garbage I’ve ever heard in my life! Look, I’ll sit and debate Manning vs. Brady all day without any problem. No matter which side of that debate you’re on, you can at least admit there’s some talking that must be done. And while I’d have to lean towards Manning (saying something considering I hate him), that conclusion certainly didn’t come quickly or easily. But Eli vs. Peyton?! Seriously?! That’s like, instead of debating Shaq vs. Kobe, we talk about Kobe vs. Lamar Odom. Good player, extremely gifted, very valuable, but not even close.

Unfortunately, the call to reason seems to have failed nationwide. Chances are, there’s at least one person reading this that doesn’t understand why I’d immediately dismiss the “Eli > Peyton” debate and brand it as the single dumbest idea in sports history (exaggeration?…maybe…maybe not). For your sake, and just for your sake, I’ve taken the time to compare the two and shoot down any myths that may aid in the ongoing insanity.

The following is a chart showing how each Manning fared in their first seven season as a starter. And, just to be nice, I totally disregarded Eli’s rookie season, in which he didn’t take over as starter until midway through the year. Think of it like a golf handicap, where Peyton had to give Eli 7 strokes just to make the competition a bit more even.

	Att	Comp	Comp%	Yards	Y/A	TD	INT	Sack Rate
Peyton	3880	2463	63.4	29,442	7.59	216	120	3.6
Eli	3724	2196	58.9	26,536	7.13	179	120	4.9

Just so there’s no confusion as to what you’re seeing above, let me explain. In a very similar amount of attempts, Peyton was significantly better at getting the ball downfield WHILE still being significantly more accurate. He threw significantly more TD’s, threw less interceptions, and got sacked FAR fewer times. Basically, he was better. By a lot. But even those numbers don’t tell the whole story. Each Manning posted career years in their seventh season (once again, giving Eli that unnecessary handicap), and that in and of itself tells quite a story.

	Att-Comp	Comp%	Yards	Y/A	TD	INT	QB Rating	DVOA
2004 Peyton	336-497	67.6	4557	9.2	49	10	121.1	60.6%
2011 Eli	359-589	61.0	4933	8.4	29	16	92.9	23.2%

Now, to be totally fair, Peyton’s 2004 season was one of the greatest seasons in football history. He would not replicate that type of performance ever again…and really, how could he? 60.6% DVOA?!?!? That’s insane! It’s nearly triple Eli’s DVOA in his “breakout” year! So that means Peyton’s resume was built on one awesome season, right? Wrong. Here is the DVOA breakdown:

	1st year	2nd year	3rd year	4th year	5th year	6th year	7th year
Peyton	4.5%	29.8%	35.1%	11.1%	16.2%	33.5%	60.6%
Eli	5.2%	3.9%	-13.1%	19.7%	21.1%	11.0%	23.2%

Peyton is far and away better in four seasons, is pretty much even with Eli in two seasons, and is slightly worse in one season. Even still, the difference of 8.6% in their fourth season is the best thing Eli’s got! Other than, he’s pretty much trounced by his older brother across the board, despite playing under more favorable rules. And, just for the record, Peyton would go on to post DVOA’s of 40.5%, 51.0%, 40.6%, 36.1%, 38.2%, and 25.0% in subsequent seasons.

So, if Eli doesn’t hold a candle statistically, then how does he compare? Oh, that’s right, Eli is WAAAAAY better in the playoffs! Well, let’s just see how much better he is:

	Games	Comp%	Yards	Y/A	TD	INT	QB Rating
Peyton	19	63.1%	5389	7.51	29	19	88.4
Eli	10	59.8%	2220	7.03	16	8	87.5

Hmm, that’s interesting. Their numbers are almost identical to their regular season stats! Weird, but I thought Peyton was terrible in the playoffs!

Not only that, but Peyton Manning has had to face far better competition than his brother. He’s faced New England three times (prior to their defense going to crap), Pittsburgh once, Baltimore twice, San Diego twice (prior to Norv Turner ruining them), two good Jets defenses, and an incredibly tough Bears defense. Meanwhile, Eli has gotten to face an extremely down NFC during his tenure. Even his two signature wins, against New England in ’07 and against Green Bay this year, came against two pretty weak defenses. Even disregarding that, the amount of luck Eli has benefitted from is incredible. If not for a crappy fifth string WR catching a ball on his head, and if not for the 49ers knocking each other unconscious while going for bad passes, we would be talking about Eli as a good, not great, QB whose team wasn’t really good enough to compete for a championship.

As I’ve said a million times before, luck is a HUGE factor in the NFL. With it, Eli Manning might have more championships than his far superior brother. Doesn’t make him a better QB. Doesn’t even place him in the same time zone as his brother! The only thing Eli supporters have is the mythical “QB Wins” stat. Ironically, Peyton has a lot more overall wins than Eli, and has never pulled the type of enormous choke jobs that Eli has in the past. Either way, QB Wins is the WORST way to evaluate QB’s, and it’s proven time and again to be ignorance at its finest.

Here’s the long and short of it; Eli is not even in the same building as Peyton. If you want to hang your hat on playoff victories, then fine…but at least try to explain why Peyton has, statistically, been superior. And really, the numbers couldn’t be clearer. Peyton has far outperformed his younger brother in every measurable way, and the mere idea that the two are remotely equal is nothing more than an idiotic media creation.

But hey, if you want to ignore years worth of data and run with your tiny 10 game sample, then more power to you. I’ll just refer to the 208 game sample size that is Peyton Manning’s Hall of Fame career, and then I’ll call you stupid.