Wednesday, August 17, 2011

That Was An Overreaction!

I've never laughed so hard at a TV show...just ask Casey, who was trying desperately to sleep in the room next to me!
Written by: Jared Prince -- Prince is a regular contributor to Boris Diaw Time! and is a frequent guest on the Boris Diaw Time! podcast...almost bordering on co-host. Thankfully for all of us, we haven't reached that point  yet.

It’s over. Don’t even bother watching football this year. The top teams have already shown themselves, and after the way they dominated their first games, all that’s left to do is crown them. Sorry Packers. Sorry Steelers. You were both beaten by teams expected to combine for less than 8 wins this year, so you’re done. What a disgrace to your fans. The fans who should be excited, though, root for the Lions and the Browns. After dominating performances in the first week of preseason, everyone should probably go ahead and lock these two teams in as their Super Bowl picks.
Alright, so let’s be a littler more serious now. It’s truly sad to say, but there are people out there who are either ridiculously excited about their team, or have already written off their team based on the first game of the preseason. Let me make one thing very clear to them…preseason games DO NOT matter! Veterans hate them, and are more worried about staying healthy than performing at the highest level. In addition, coaches refuse to put any good plays on film for their first real opponents. So what you end up with is the starters taking as few snaps as possible and running the most basic plays.

In all reality, the NFL preseason is more about coaches evaluating individual players to see who should make the team/practice squad than about setting expectations for the upcoming season. For a young rookie or a player hoping to find a team, this is their chance. Remember though, they’re probably going against a player who may not even make an NFL roster. Last year, in Minnesota’s first preseason game against St. Louis, Sage Rosenfels threw for 310 yards and 3 TD’s in just over one half of football. Who thinks he’s the next Joe Montana? Anyone? No? Didn’t think so. Honestly, I really don’t care at all how my team performs in the preseason. The only reason for me to get excited is when I see the starters walk off the field without an injury.

In case you didn’t know, I’m a huge Minnesota Vikings fan. They went out Saturday night and lost 14-3. I guarantee there are fans making a big deal about the teams’ “poor performance,” while not remembering that they didn’t play Jared Allen, Kevin Williams, Antoine Winfield, Cedric Griffin, Visanthe Shiancoe, or Anthony Herrera. Oh, and their best player, Adrian Peterson, got a whole 1 carry on the night. You know what? Even if Minnesota did play all of their guys for the first 2 series and still lost 14-3, I wouldn’t feel any differently.

Preseason is meant to knock off some of the rust from the off-season and then get the players out of the game. This is how preseason should work, and most teams will sit star players for most of the game…or even the whole game. The preseason is built into the year for a specific purpose…that purpose is not to win.

You know how, in baseball, a pitcher will be sent down to the minor leagues to work on a specific pitch? Most often, the pitcher ends up getting crushed because the hitters know what pitch is coming (ask the Toronto Blue Jays how much it helps!). The purpose of the minor league assignment isn’t for him to win and dominate; it’s for the pitcher to improve at throwing and locating that specific pitch. Then, when he is recalled, he can go back to throwing every pitch and trying to win games. Despite the rough outings in the minors, the pitcher is a better overall player. In fact, you could say thanks to the rough outings in the minors! This is kind of how I view the NFL preseason. Teams run the simple plays that every defense knows, but when they start playing the real games, you pull out the whole playbook and your team is better overall.

Maybe you feel that preseason success or failure carries over into the regular season. It may seem like there could be a direct correlation, but historically, it just hasn’t worked out that way. The final 4 teams of the playoffs last year (GB, CHI, PIT, NYJ) went 7-9 in the preseason with notable losses to Washington, Detroit, Carolina, Arizona, Oakland, and twice to Cleveland. In case you didn’t know, those are some bad teams. The Indianapolis Colts, who have been one of the best and most consistent regular season teams for years, have notoriously been horrible in the preseason. Since 2005, the Colts have gone 4-22 in the preseason. It’s crazy to think their record is that horrible, but what’s even more ridiculous is that in the regular season, since 2005, they only have 21 losses. They actually have fewer losses playing a full 16 game schedule in the regular season than what they have in the same amount of time playing only 4 or 5 preseason games!

Now, let’s look at one of the worst teams since 2005: The Detroit Lions. Since 2005 the Lions have gone 14-10 in the preseason. As you might already know (should already know) they haven’t had a winning record in any of those years. They actually have had more wins in the preseason than in the regular season 2 out of 6 years, and miraculously went 4-0 in the preseason the same year they went 0-16! I can’t even begin to understand how upset I would have been if I were a Lions fan that year. With this in mind, I think it’s safe to say there is a huge difference between the regular season and preseason.

With all this being said, I actually do like the preseason. I love watching football, and even though it’s a game that means nothing, it still can be fun to watch. I also like to get a look at the players my team drafted in April. Most of the time, I haven’t watched these guys in college, so it’s fun for me to see them and hopefully find out a little about what type of player they are.

I get bored often, so I like to think of myself as an NFL coach evaluating players during these games. Every year, I actually go through and try to predict who will make the roster and who will get cut…but that’s really all you can do with the preseason. So fans, don’t let this first weekend of games, or the next 3, sway your thoughts about how you think your team is going to perform this year. If your team is projected to be good, and the starters went out and were horrible, don’t panic. If your team is projected to get a high first round pick and put up 30 points, don’t start predicting a Super Bowl win. Just remember that the most you can hope for in the preseason is an injury free 4 games. That’s it.    

Note: Boris Diaw Time FULLY endorses Prince's viewpoint. Preseason is LESS THAN MEANINGLESS!!! For another interesting look at how meaningless preseason is, check out this article by our good friend from 18to88.com, Nate Dunlevy.

15 comments:

  1. Say what you want... but you can't convince me that the 49ers' OL wasn't trying their hardest to pick up the Saints' blitz packages. I mean seriously, did you SEE them go after Alex Smith?! I'm still terrified... even though I agree with your point entirely!!! I can't help it!!!

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  2. If your a 49ers fan, you SHOULD be terrified. After all, there's not a huge difference from first team to third team, is there?

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  3. Maybe the 49ers were trying out Culpepper to play O-Line for them

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  4. Actually, that kinda makes sense. Maybe they should trade for Grossman and pair the two on the defensive front.

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  5. I was a Lions fan that year (and all other years too) and what makes the preseason even more offensive is the owner's decisions to charge full regular season price for tickets. And they don't want to give up preseason games while extending the regular season. I could go on a rant about money and millionaires but I won't. But 4 preseason games are unnecessary because the starters play a total 2 quarters and the backups another 3 while the rest of the roster should be able to be picked from practice.

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  6. I really wish they would drop to 3 preseason games(2 would be fine, but that would never fly)and add an extra bye week. Could help lessen injuries and keep teams a bit more fresh as they head into the playoffs.

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  7. I entirely disagree. I'm retraction my prediction of 6-10 and taking the Browns all the way to NFL champs in '11. Wait, what? Hillis sat out with hamstring tightness already? but we scored 27 against the Packers! In all seriousness though, I was excited about one development I saw from Cleveland's preseason game...Cribbs had 2 balls hit him in the hands...and he caught both of them!!!!

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  8. Actually, that's a significant step for Cribbs. NOTHING CAN STOP HIM NOW!!! There's your major weapon!

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  9. Now if they'd only let him play defensive special teams again...oh wait...that's actually a good idea...let's just get a real receiver and let cribbs play special teams only...I'm looking at you, holmgren!

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  10. Sadly, special teams are like Walkman's now. Archaic and obsolete. I think they should trade him to the Dolphins for a way-too-high draft pick so Cribbs can live out his ultimate destiny as a full time Wildcat QB.

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  11. I know this is unrelated to the post, but since the topic of the browns' receivers came up (yes I brought it up) what are the odds that they deliberately waited in free agency to try to get Pryor as a WR? I know that realistically, the odds are terribly small both that they did that and that they will get him, but it's just fun to entertain the idea.

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  12. I'd say approximately 0%. Whatever team takes Pryor today will be taking him as a QB. From what I've read, Pryor is not too open to the idea of switching positions. Perhaps down the road, he will change his tune. For now though, taking him as a WR isn't a possibility. Even if the he was being selected as a WR, I don't see how that helps the Browns. Rookie receivers are historically unproductive for a few years...much less a 5th or 6th round one that has literally never played the position before in his life. He definitely wouldn't be able to contribute for at least two years.

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  13. Now after the point, pryor actually told reporters he was willing to play wr, but that point is now moot. Pryor has been lost to the leper colony known as Al Davis.

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  14. The actual terms of the deal are that Pryor is open to playing WR in exchange for Al Davis promising to not get any of his barnacles on him. I'd say it's a fair trade.

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  15. that might be the grossest sentence ever to grace this podcast...also, I can see it now that somehow they'll draw up a play which intentionally ends in pryor running full speed into heyward-bey on a 6 yard slant.

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